You may be enjoying our annual weather speculation. Do note, we freak out about everything. Including a few days of 38˚ weather. (Okay, not really; we just don’t want it to be 38 on race day. And it won’t be.) There’s a foot of snow compacted on the trail. Not a foot in the woods (there’s two feet of snow pack in the woods), a foot on the groomed, packed and tilled trail. Back in the day I ran some data of previous meltdowns in the Twin Cities when we were looking down the pike a some warm weather and the conclusion was that in January it’s damn near impossible to melt a foot of snow. A little easier in February (higher sun angle) but it ain’t happening unless it’s 50 for the next few days. And rains.

Skinnyski is saying don’t panic. If there were marginal conditions, we’d be hanging on every degree. As the second linked article mentions, the only difference 38 vs 41 will make is how much transformed snow forms up top to till in to the base. It will just make it faster. Weather speculation is full of hyperbole because it’s just that, speculation. It’s almost more fun when there is some question about conditions in marginal years, although I’d much rather have this kind of weather every time. A month ago, I posted that we’d be fine. It’s been above freezing exactly zero times since then. So, yeah. Birkie. It’s happening, guys.