As we close in on the race, and as our FEVER goes higher and higher, we’re getting a clearer idea of what is in store for race day. The general race weather is pretty set with a start temperature in the teens, clouds, light north winds and some new snow. The main question: how much new snow?

The models vary. It probably won’t be a full-on Birkie Blizzard that was advertised on some models a few days ago. The GFS is at the low end of the range, with only an inch or two of new snow falling on the trail. The Canadian Model shows a bit more than that. The European model is comparable with the Canadian. But the shorter-term NAM model is coming in to range and showing a bigger storm with half a foot of snow falling during the day on Friday. This would make for soft, new snow conditions, as opposed to a mix of new and old snow. No matter what, it will be groomed well and silky smooth.

There are certainly waxing considerations. If there is little new snow, it will be a mix of old—and very cold; the high in Hayward today is slated to top out just above 0 and the low tonight will be -15—snow and some newer snow on top. If there is more, it will be softer, and the snow will be newer, warmer and sharper.

Now, of course, if the only issues are what type of snow there will be and how much of it will be new, we can not complain. Last year had some snow issues before the race, and more of the “will there be enough” variety. Even the year before had a meltdown and some grass poking through on the power lines. No worries about that this year!