We’re now 18 days from the Birkie.

(Okay, this is kind of scary. Have you started waxing your skis? You should.)

This is the point where we can start speculating about the weather. Sort of. Let’s start with where we are. We’re about where we were at this point last year: there’s good snow on the Birkie Trail, but it’s not particularly deep. The good news is that there are not long-range weather maps with sirens showing a huge warm-up. The not-so-good news is that we’re not out of the woods yet: there are some signs that it may be above normal the week leading in to the Birkie.

The next week looks cold (good) and dry. The week after looks like there may be a warm-up around the 15th, but the models are undecided on how warm it may get. The GFS has wavered between a couple of days above freezing and just temperatures moderating towards 30, while the Euro shows similar results. The Canadian gets warmer, with a couple of days around the 40 degree mark, but it’s a warm outlier right now. There’s nothing, however, which suggests a week in the 50s, a run at 60, and heavy rain (see 2017). We can’t rule it out, but it certainly looks better.

Keep an eye on this page as you select your skis. And hopefully we’ll be on race skis, not rock skis, in little more than two weeks!