It’s becoming clearer that is what we’re going to get.

Here are the last two days of runs of the GFS model. Except for the first run, which is now two days old, every run shows a foot of snow falling in Hayward (if you want to find Hayward, it’s not marked here, but if you use the latitude and longitude as guides, it’s at about 91˚W and 46˚N. And these are 10-to-1 snow ratio, with colder snow, it might be more. So while the snow right now is hard and icy, there’s some powder incoming. If the snow holds off just long enough, the fastest time of Birkie Week might be on Open Track day. This may be a high bias, but several inches of snow appears more and more likely.

The timing is actually quite good. For people headed to Hayward for the Open Track, the snow should start midday, so shouldn’t impact travel too much, although travel may become difficult on Wednesday evening. Then, the heaviest of the snow should be mostly done by Thursday morning, so Thursday events should be able to go off as planned (although maybe with a lot of snow) while giving the groomers enough time to groom (or plow) the trail for the next two days of racing. By Saturday, the trail will have had enough passes to dredge up some old, frozen snow, mix it with the powder and till it all together.

The only issues? It could be mighty cold. The GFS may be overblown, but it has it at -20˚ overnight before both days of racing, with highs barely cracking zero. So, get that face tape out and, gents, don’t forget your wind briefs!