A couple of model run updates:

The Euro came north a bit, but still falls in the 3-5 inch range. That’s not nothing, and might be enough to put something down on the trail (apparently, the northern portion of the trail is 90% solid, wet ice and 10% bare) but not likely enough for a race. The GFS has trended south and is spitting out about the same amount. The Canadian is similar. Only the NAM still scores a direct 8-12″ hit on the Birkie Trail, and even it has trended a bit lower on the most recent run.

So something in the 3-6″ range is probably most likely. Minneapolis may do better, and Southwest Minnesota may get hit hard. Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately), the Birkie isn’t in Mankato.