Weather … without even that much speculation

It’s Thursday morning, the sun is rising, and I’m pretty glad that we’re not skiing the Birkie today. The Birkie start area, at 7 a.m., is reporting -20˚. Skiing at -20˚ can be fun, maybe, but standing around at the start waiting to start skiing at -20˚ is almost definitely not fun. But the Birkie events are all later today, and temperatures should reach well above 0˚ today by the time the Hayward events take place. And -20 should freeze the Birkie trail up well.

So let’s get to the details:

Thursday evening may feature some snow in Hayward, but most of the precipitation will stay south of US 8. For those driving later on Thursday from the Twin Cities or through the southern two-thirds of Wisconsin, expect some snow. It won’t be heavy, but 1-3″ of snow from Chicago north to Eau Clare and the Cities is likely.

Friday for the Kortelopet should be cold to start (but not as cold; around 0), but sunny, not very windy, and should warm to about 20˚ by afternoon, so a decent day for spectators and skiers. Reports from Duluth, which has similar snow to the Birkie, is that it is reasonably fast, so it shouldn’t be sandpapery, although the new snow and cold weather may affect this if it isn’t fully groomed in. Hourly temperatures (from the NAM 3k model):

9 a.m.: 7˚
10 a.m.: 11˚
11 a.m.: 14˚
12 noon: 16˚
1 p.m.: 18˚
2 p.m.: 20˚
3 p.m.: 20˚

Saturday for the Birkie will be warmer still, and breezier. We’ve seen this weather before and it’s really quite nice.

7 a.m.: 5˚
8 a.m.: 9˚
9 a.m.: 14˚
10 a.m.: 21˚
11 a.m.: 25˚
12 noon: 29˚

With an afternoon high (the model only runs to 60 hours) from other models around 32 or 33. However, the Canadian model is not quite as warm, with temperatures in the upper 20s. In any case, it should be sunny and breezy, with the winds kicking up as the day goes on and most skiers will face a headwind on portions of the course heading southwest, and out in the open, so especially down Sunset hill and across the Lake. That said, it won’t be a cold wind, so it’s not a bad tradeoff for, you know, not starting at 20˚.

And it should be a lovely afternoon in Hayward, back for the first time since 2020.

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