It’s barely two weeks to the Birkie, and things seem to be, well, sort of holding on. We’re on the verge of the longest model runs going to race day, so it’s time to start weather speculation in earnest! The news going forward is very mixed. On the one hand, the current models have not been showing any major warm-ups. Without new snow, a couple days in to the 40s would probably shorten the race, and quite possibly cancel it.

The latest model run (in tabular form here and in graphic form here) shows cold temperatures and then moderation this week, and a similar pattern next week. The forecast high over the next two weeks is 36, although that day it appears there may be abundant sunshine which could, in late February, push the mercury over 40 and do a number on some south-facing hills. Precipitation appears negligible, with storms tracking south of the Northwoods, although a shift north would hit Birkieland quite nicely and is not out of the question.

In summary, there’s a decent chance of a full race if temperatures stay low and there’s a bit of new snow. But with trail conditions sounding pretty marginal, any deviation (colder and snowier or warmer and sunnier) will have major implications towards race day. We will, of course, keep you posted.

Here is our post on weather speculation resources.