I’m not concerned about a warm-up before race day. The snow that’s there, and whatever falls this weekend, will be there. 2017 this is not. Except for Friday and Saturday, when the temperatures will reach to nearly 20 (balmy!) Hayward shouldn’t break 10 until next Wednesday. Lows most nights will be in the -10 to -20 range, and often colder. We could race in that, but like Bartleby, I’d prefer not to.

Luckily, I don’t think we’ll have to. Take a look at the map below. It shows the temperature outlook for the week starting Thursday before Birkie. Since weather patterns often progress west to east in the US, this suggests that the pattern may start off colder and move towards warmer, and since average high temperatures in Hayward are nearly 30 in late February, we could be looking at near normal temperatures during this range. During a transition from colder temperatures to warmer temperatures, there’s often a departing high pressure system, which can mean cold but calm conditions to start with warm sunshine by afternoon, the perfect weather for the Birkie,.

Reading the model tea leaves, they all suggest this in the longer range, but occurring at different times. The GFS suggests that Friday (Korte Day) would be around -20˚ to start, but “warm up” to nearly 20˚ by afternoon. Birkie day would fall back to 10˚ to 15˚, but make 30˚ by the Lake (this is my favorite Birkie weather). The European and Canadian models shows this happening a day later (with Korte Day barely making it to 10˚, and Birkie Day maybe making it to 20˚). If they’re right you’ll need more Aquavit to stay warm cheering on the lake!