The bad news? We probably need some snow before Birkie day to have really good conditions. The good news? It’s looking more likely that we’ll get some. Not necessarily a dump (although one model run hinted at an all-out Birkie blizzard). More likely 2-4 inches next Tuesday. The last four (4) GFS model runs have shown a weakening low pressure system cut off over Wisconsin, which would lead to a few inches of snow. Nothing, of course is set in stone, and the other models don’t necessarily agree, but it’s within a week, and there’s good run-to-run continuity, so, well, it means very little.

As for temperatures, tomorrow appears to be the warmest day until the race, with highs going in to the high 30s. If we can survive tomorrow’s meltdown, the snow should do pretty well until then. And given that the Birkie is pretty important to the local economy, I’d imagine that the race organizers are going to be working to patch any thin spots in the mean time. Nevertheless, a few inches of snow next week would go a long way.

Race time weather outlooks are vacillating between cool and moist (light snow) and cold and dry. Except for the aforementioned Birkie blizzard run, which would have rain changing to heavy snow the night before the storm, a foot of snow and gusty winds. Highway 63 would be mighty interesting in that.