I’m not going to give away my wax secrets (okay, fine: old snow = Toko, new snow = Swix), but there are two camps right now for how much snow will fall before the Birkie. In one camp is the NAM model. It shows 3-6 inches of snow falling on the Birkie Trail all day Friday and in towards the race. In the other camp is the Canadian model, which shows quite little. The HPC is in the former camp, with a 50% chance of at least 4-6 inches, a 10%-90% range of 2-12 inches. (I’d discount the higher amounts, but still.) The European model also shows colder temperatures—in the 8-12 range—as opposed to higher temperatures advertised by some other models.

How much it snows will have quite an impact for skiers in the race. For starters, flex. If the race were held today, it would be a pretty solid course, with medium-flex skis or harder for the course. Throw four or five or six inches of snow on to the course, an it’s a festival for the soft-skied types. Assuredly the Birkie will send out the machines to smooth and pack, but falling snow won’t turn to hardpack overnight.

My money is on three or four inches of snow. And my wax. Since I don’t have a dozen pairs of skis for any and all conditions.