We’re on to the 00Z model suite (look at me, I almost wrote OOZ, because OO) and the GFS and NAM are both hinting at an earlier occlusion. Basically, the storm would stop intensifying and begin to transfer energy east along an occluded front (or a trough of warm air aloft, or a TROWAL) towards a new triple-point to the east. This may mean that while southwest Minnesota—or even in to the Cities—could see a foot and a half of snow, the Birkie Trail may see only six inches. Six inches may be curtains for the race, especially since much of the trail may be down to bare, warm ground.

This is only one scenario, and there is still the possibility the storm over-performs, and similarly it could go south (as the Canadian continues to suggest). And it’s likely to snow, the question is exactly where and exactly how much. Right now, it doesn’t look like the jackpot will be in Cable. But things can and will change. Many more model runs to go before morning.

The chance of cancelation is too depressing to calculate. It’s well above 50, anyway.