We still have a problem. It’s going to be warm for the next week. Five days above 40, potentially two above 50. This is no bueno. It may cool down some evenings. It may rain. The snow may last. But it will be close. It may not.

We’ve had a good run of snow years for the Birkie since 2007: the longest run of a full course being run since the 1990s. Good things may come to an end. But they may not.

I think retaining a good base with the upcoming weather may be very difficult. But if we can retain something on the ground, anything on top helps us a lot. And there’s a strong signal a week out that we may see some snow. Most of the model runs in the past few days have shown this; the ones which haven’t have shown the storm being suppressed south by high pressure. This is what to watch. Today, we’re 2/3 on models showing the storm hitting the Birkie Trail with enough snow to give us a race next week. We’ll have to watch this, closely, over the next few days. For now, if you’re a praying person, pray for snow.

(I’d like this year closest to 1998, when there was 6″ of snowpack and a week of temperatures in the 50s. That year the race was shortened to OO. Hopefully we can get a bit better.)