I was pessimistic when I went to bed. I’m optimistic this morning. Everything that came in overnight looks good:

• The European model trended back to snow. It’s still putting Hayward on the northern fringe, with only about four or five inches (although it does flip Cable over to some wet pasty snow on Wednesday), but that’s a better trend from yesterday when it was showing only an inch or two. So that’s good.
• The GFS model has held serve and continues to show 8–12 inches falling on Thursday night in to Friday, most in time for the Kortelopet. Again, it could stand to move a few miles north, but I would not complain if it played out just as modeled.
• The NAM model pushed north overnight, and now outpaces the GFS, showing upwards of a foot of snow falling, with the same time frame.

The noon model suite should tell us more, but for now, this is promising.

An aside: let’s hope that the models which correctly modeled the warm-up almost a month ago do the same with the storm (these are entirely different models). At least starting today.