Last week, we wrote about how the long-range weather forecast for the Birkie was sub-optimal. Since then, it hasn’t gotten much better, but it hasn’t gotten any worse, and there are some glimmers of hope. Looking out 10 to 16 days on the models is always a dangerous exercise, and we should look only at bigger picture trends, not specific events. The US model, which goes out to 16 days, is promising. The last few runs have dampened the western ridge somewhat, and kept Wisconsin on the eastern fringe of it, keeping temperatures from skyrocketing in to the 40s. The European Model out to 10 days mostly does the same. The US model even shows some additional snowfall before race day. It’s still a low-confidence forecast, and there’s plenty which could go awry, but for now decent snow conditions appear possible.

Less than three weeks to go!