The forecast high in Hayward today was 47˚.

Right now, it’s 55˚.

This is real bad. It’s 55 and sunny, which is better than 55 and rain, but still baking away at the base. The hope was that fog or low clouds would mitigate the melt somewhat. That looks unlikely.

On the other hand, the European model prints out a direct hit for the Birkie next Thursday and Friday with 12-18 inches of snow falling, starting Thursday night. We’re now banking on that. Here’s my best guess at what may happen next week:

• 6% chance the race is held on the current base
• 18% chance the race is held on the current base, but is shortened to or turned back at OO
• 40% chance the race is held based on new snowfall
• 36% chance the race is canceled due to lack of snow

With the current weather and upcoming warmth, we are really banking on a Birkie Blizzard. It’s not a good place to be. But it’s better than canceling a plane ticket.