Livin’ on a prayer (49% chance of cancelation)

Today’s model runs have been … all over the map. The GFS, which had taken snow south of Eau Clare, has brought it back to the Birkie. Not much, but 4″ would be enough as long as the base is somewhat intact.

The European pushed the storm south. The Canadian kept us on the edge.

It doesn’t look good, but it’s not hopeless. A lot will depend on what happens tomorrow with the rain having come through. If the base north of OO (I’ve mostly written off a race south of OO unless the storm comes way north; if Fish Hatchery is hosting a trail run on Thursday, well, that doesn’t bode well) survives, I think we have a decent chance. If there are small holes that can be patched (water courses, etc) I think we might be okay. Having the race on Saturday, after some cold weather sets in, helps a lot: if the race was scheduled for Wednesday we might be sunk. If the course has washed away to grass, though, we’ll really need a miracle.

I’ve updated my numbers. I think we’re really right on a 50/50 line of salvaging anything.

Now, I might have to write my unofficial guide to still having fun at the Birkie even if you only get to ski 25k.

Do you believe in miracles? Not yet …

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