New podcast with the inimitable Ketzel Levens and if you listen and are interested in some of the things we talk about, here are some links. I’m not going to try to explain, well, any of this, but just give some places to go for a deep dive:
MJO:
- What is the Madden-Julian Oscillation and why do we care? (Climate.gov)
- Current MJO forecast and information (Climate Prediction Center)
- Madden-Julian Oscillation (Wikipedia)
- Detection of a 40–50 Day Oscillation in the Zonal Wind in the Tropical Pacific (Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)
Sudden Stratospheric warming
- Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events (NWS)
- Disrupted polar vortex brings sudden stratospheric warming in February 2023 (Climate.gov)
- Sudden Stratospheric Warming (Wikipedia)
CONUS — Continental United States
Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day outlook
CFSV2 weekly temperature anomalies
As for Birkie weather … we’re a couple of days closer to the race and not much has changed. Here and there a model shows a snowstorm crossing Wisconsin a few days before the race, but most likely we’re looking at a manmade course, with the possibility a late-breaking snowstorm lets the Birkie run a long-loop course to OO and back. (I am assuming they would rather do that than try to pick up thousands of skiers at Rosie’s or Duffy’s field at a makeshift finish line). The lake is unlikely to survive a warm week and some rain, and the weather thereafter does not look cold enough to refreeze it. It’s not looking to be a perfect Birkie, but hopefully we can salvage something.