It’s 8 weeks to the Boston Marathon, and 1 week to the “Boston Marathon of Cross Country Skiing”. Is anyone (besides me) doing both? If so, want to join me on a podcast to talk about how you make the switch from skiing to running for the short interval between the two races? Email me: ari.ofsevit at gmail.

In the past couple of years I’ve participated in three of the top-15 (or so) marathon-length races in the country: the Boston and Chicago marathons and the Birkie. (Yes, if the 2016 Birkie was a footrace, it would be the 13th largest marathon-or-longer race in the country, between the Portland and San Francisco marathons.) When I run Boston, they charge me $180. Chicago: $195. New York is close to $300. Even smaller races like Grandma’s and the Twin Cities marathon have entry fees well over $100. The Birkie is comparatively cheap, at just $115.

And remember, all of those races don’t have to maintain their course: that’s done by the local highway department. Some are loop courses (Chicago, for instance) and don’t have buses to and from the start. They have to close down more roads, but they don’t have to mow or groom them. Or put down a fresh layer of asphalt on the finish.

I found an article about the Birkie from 1989 in the New York Times. Back then, race registration was $60, only half of what it is today, except that’s not adjusted for inflation. When you make the adjustment, it turns out the Birkie is cheaper now than it was back then: the $60 race fee in 1989 is equivalent to $122 today. It’s not cheap to run the second-largest bus system in the state, or groom nearly 100 kilometers of trails, or snow in a main street, but the Birkie makes it happen without breaking the bank. See you on the trails!

We’re getting in to range now. 10 days out we start go get good reads from three models, 8 runs per day (2 each for the Canadian and European, four for the US), at least publicly (The US and Canadian models have free output, I generally view their output via TropicalTidbits; the Euro is harder, but you can get its output pretty well via the Norwegian weather service here.

The good news: the GFS model’s current run (with similar, if not as good, prognostication from recent runs). The US model only has a few hours barely above freezing, and then brings more good news in the form of fresh snow the week before the race and temperatures around 0 at the start of the Birkie rising in to the 20s during the race (similar for the Korteloppet). This is basically the perfect situation for the Birkie, a cold, snowy, firm-but-not-icy midwinter race.

The European is similar, although not quite as bullish, and doesn’t get us data right up to the Birkie itself, but doesn’t have really much meltdown. A little less snow. A little warmer leading in to the Korteloppet. But both these models lead us in to a pretty damn good race weekend weather situation.

Then there’s the Canadian model. This is basically the worst case scenario. It keeps it plenty cold (with a few inches of snow) for the next week-plus, but then diverges from the GFS. On Thursday, it pushes a low pressure center through Fargo, with temperatures pushing 50˚ and some rain. The course might survive; it’s not what happened last year. And a cold front would sweep through on Friday. But it would be very not good, so we don’t want to ride the Canadian.

12 days to go. Stay tuned …

We’re now 18 days from the Birkie.

(Okay, this is kind of scary. Have you started waxing your skis? You should.)

This is the point where we can start speculating about the weather. Sort of. Let’s start with where we are. We’re about where we were at this point last year: there’s good snow on the Birkie Trail, but it’s not particularly deep. The good news is that there are not long-range weather maps with sirens showing a huge warm-up. The not-so-good news is that we’re not out of the woods yet: there are some signs that it may be above normal the week leading in to the Birkie.

The next week looks cold (good) and dry. The week after looks like there may be a warm-up around the 15th, but the models are undecided on how warm it may get. The GFS has wavered between a couple of days above freezing and just temperatures moderating towards 30, while the Euro shows similar results. The Canadian gets warmer, with a couple of days around the 40 degree mark, but it’s a warm outlier right now. There’s nothing, however, which suggests a week in the 50s, a run at 60, and heavy rain (see 2017). We can’t rule it out, but it certainly looks better.

Keep an eye on this page as you select your skis. And hopefully we’ll be on race skis, not rock skis, in little more than two weeks!

The centerpiece of the Super Bowl experience in Minneapolis is the Birkie Bridge. But how did the bridge make it from Hayward to Minneapolis for a football game? We talked to City of Lakes Loppet director John Munger to find out. Find the podcast here, and get out and ski Nicollet if you’re in town!

It’s been a rollercoaster year so far in Birkie-land. Snow and cold, then some warmth, and the just missing out on a jackpot of a storm (12″ of dense snow down in the Cities, but only 3″ on the Birkie Trail, although at least it puts some fresh snow down on the Birkie Bridge at the Superbowl, and provide for a pretty good Loppet course, too).

We’re more than a month out from the race, and things look, well, okay. The big issue is that the last few days have shown a big warm-up on the model (the US model, anyway) for the week before the Birkie, after a cold snap to start off February. We saw this last year, although the model didn’t really catch on to reality until the end of the month, and we’re far enough out that there’s very little skill to the model (i.e. there’s a lot of variability in the actual result) and we’re looking at big picture trends. Plus, there’s a big difference between 34˚ and 54˚, but both are above normal.

Heck, a lot of this comes down to things like the MJO, which is a climatic phenomenon in the Indian Ocean which affects weather in North America (yes, really). But forecasting using the MJO, and even the ENSO (El Niño / La Niña) months out doesn’t give you exact conditions for the Birkie, but some long range trends. So we’ll keep an eye on conditions, but there’s really no telling right now how it will affect the race itself.

Who is Marty Hall? If you need a refresher, read what Nat Herz had to say about him. Described once as “opinionated and controversial.” And was around for the birth of the Birkie Trail. We’ll talk about that, and some other stuff, since Marty is one to talk.

Enjoy the podcast. More in the new year!

For the second podcast of the week, we talk to Tom Schuler, who is running the Double Birkie again this year on Friday at 8 a.m. at Fish Hatchery. Want to ski 80k or more? Just show up!

Here’s the podcast.

Stay tuned for another podcast later this week. And if you live somewhere with snow, enjoy the skiing.

Just in time for Christmas, our gift to you is the first Podcast of the 2017-2018 BirkieGuide Podcast season. We talk to executive director Ben Popp for some updates about the Birkie Bridge in Minneapolis for the Superbowl (which I call the Olympics, or something), trail conditions, and the race itself, which is still not full. So pretend like it’s 2009 and sign up now!

Here’s the podcast.

We have several more episodes coming which should post in the next couple of days.

Greetings, Birkie Guide followers. We’ve been quiet this summer, but with snow and cold in the air, it’s time to get the presses rolling once again. We have some podcasting to go in your earholes upcoming in the next few days (we hope!). But we noticed that Sun Country is having their annual(ish) Black Friday/Cyber Monday sale, Delta is matching, and there are some good deals on Birkie flights. There are some flights from Boston, for example, for as little as $217, if you fly home on Monday and are willing to go “basic economy.” But, hey, it’s cheap. More money to spend on fluoro top coats.

Stay tuned for more updates soon!