Tuesday Weather Speculation

You know what, guys? It’s going to be a damn good Birkie.

The NWS has hoisted a winter storm watch, so we’re looking at six or more inches of snow. It will start off moist (base) and then get dry and powdery as it gets cold and the storm pulls off. Friday will be chilly and windy, and Saturday morning looks cold and dry. The race will probably start either side of 0. Wind briefs and buffs will be the order of the day.

It was 38 in Hayward today, and should be 38 tomorrow. A dry, sunny 38 which will just serve to put a few ice crystals in to the base. However, if there’s enough snow these might not even get tilled up, so the race should be powdery. Soft-medium flex skis will be in order with a fine grind. Fluoros if you must, but cold powder is Start Green.

Q&A with Caitlin Gregg

She looks nice, but she'll kick your butt on the ski trail.

You know what’s awesome about nordic skiing? If you email someone who’s really good, they’ll email you back. Such is the case with two-time Birkie champ and 2010 Olympian Caitlin Gregg, who was kind enough to answer some questions about the Birkie, the Olympics and life in general with us. See what she’s been up to and where she’s going—other than really quickly from Cable to Hayward on Saturday.

The whole of the interview is here. Cheer for her in Hayward, if you happen to be the first person in.

Falling at the finish

There’s been a lot of talk these Olympics about why cross country skiers fall down a the end of the race. (See here and here, for instance.) I’m not good enough to go hard enough to fall down like that (I will slump over my poles, but usually not collapse; I need to work on going harder) but I will expound upon why Nordic skiers do this and no one else does.

There are two elements that go towards pushing yourself so hard that at the end of a race you can’t stand up anymore. One: it has to be a long enough race. A 400 meter dash demands an extraordinary anaerobic effort, but isn’t long enough to completely drain your body. A 50k ski race? Well, yes. And two, and perhaps more importantly: you need a sport which uses your entire body. While runners do fall down from time to time at the ends of races, they have muscle groups which are relatively underused during the event: the legs put out more power than the arms during a marathon. In skiing, you are demanding peak exertion from every muscle group, draining everything down until you have nothing left anywhere.

And there aren’t many sports like this. Bicycling uses mostly legs. So does running. Of mainstream sports, it seems that only rowing and swimming are similarly full-body. Longer swimming races are long enough to qualify, and a 2000m rowing race is six to eight minutes (depending on the boat). Long, but not two hours. But then, at the end of a swimming race, you’re in bouyant water clinging to the edge of a pool; most of your weight is supported by the water. Grab the edge and you’re set. If you’re rowing, you’re sitting in a boat. If you’re on skis, you’re standing on narrow, slide-y strips of wood that have no business being balanced, at the same time trying to catch your breath. Oh, you may have just thrown yourself off balance to extend a foot across the line. And you may have been doing it for an hour or two, full blast.

So, yeah, while it might sometimes be a little overdramatic, you may fall down. Find me another sport like that, and I’ll race it 50k. Otherwise, see you in Cable.

Notes on hyperbole

You may be enjoying our annual weather speculation. Do note, we freak out about everything. Including a few days of 38˚ weather. (Okay, not really; we just don’t want it to be 38 on race day. And it won’t be.) There’s a foot of snow compacted on the trail. Not a foot in the woods (there’s two feet of snow pack in the woods), a foot on the groomed, packed and tilled trail. Back in the day I ran some data of previous meltdowns in the Twin Cities when we were looking down the pike a some warm weather and the conclusion was that in January it’s damn near impossible to melt a foot of snow. A little easier in February (higher sun angle) but it ain’t happening unless it’s 50 for the next few days. And rains.

Skinnyski is saying don’t panic. If there were marginal conditions, we’d be hanging on every degree. As the second linked article mentions, the only difference 38 vs 41 will make is how much transformed snow forms up top to till in to the base. It will just make it faster. Weather speculation is full of hyperbole because it’s just that, speculation. It’s almost more fun when there is some question about conditions in marginal years, although I’d much rather have this kind of weather every time. A month ago, I posted that we’d be fine. It’s been above freezing exactly zero times since then. So, yeah. Birkie. It’s happening, guys.

2014 PROTIPs

The Birkie has a page up of “New in 2014: what you need to know now.” You really need to know it next week, but that’s a digression. Here are some #PROTIPs on some of the changes that are in store:

  • This is not completely new, but you probably just received an “action required” email with your number and confirmation. It helps everyone if you bring this to the start. PROTIP: load it on to your phone and bring it that way. If you take a screenshot of the email on your phone (on an iPhone, press the screen on/off button and the home button at the same time), you won’t have to search through your email. And it’s possible that Hayward’s cell network will get overloaded on Friday (more likely after the race).
  • You can bribe your way in to the start. Okay, it’s not really bribery, but a donation. Give the Birkie $100 in cold, hard cash (or plastic, I guess), and they’ll give you a start pass. If you fill a car, that’s just $20 per person to get to not have to ride the bus. That’s not a bad deal. PROTIP: Carpool.
  • There’s a big, heated hospitality tent at the start. It will probably be built on snow and lined with hay, which may have nasty fungus. We were all blowing black snot out of our noses after the Book Across the Bay in 2010. But we spent a couple hours in that tent drinking beer. PROTIP: spend as little time as necessary in the tent, unless it’s raining or frigid or something awful. And, you know, don’t show up for a bus at 6:00 if you’re not going out until 9. If you’re cold, find the heat vents. Mmm. Heat vents.
  • The Birkie has new bibs. They’re … colorful? The old-style cloth bibs—two pieces of cloth and some elastic and piping—are great, but these are something you’d more likely see in a bigger race. I can only assume the Birkie got a deal on them. One potential issue is that for later-wave skiers they’ll be harder to fit over a jacket. PROTIP: wear a race suit. One other concern that I have is how they’ll be for memorabilia. Right now I have a couple dozen bibs, tied together, lining the walls of my bedroom. These will be harder to string up and display after the race since they’re fully stretchy.
  • There’s doping control! You could get tested if you’re in the top 20, or if you’re a random athlete. PROTIP: take feeds during the race, to keep yourself hydrated enough that you can produce a sample. Being hydrated is good for skiing, too. Bonus PROTIP: Lay off the EPO, will ya?
  • If you’re awake and sober enough, there are door prizes being given away on Saturday evening in Hayward. You can stop off there on your way to the Sawmill, I guess. PROTIP: Go to the Sawmill.

Two weeks to go

In two weeks it will be go time. It will be bib pick-up. It will be last minute waxing changes. It will be time to get things done.

For now, weather speculation! Here’s what we’ve seen in the past few model runs:

  • Cold through next Tuesday. Not -20 for highs, but highs below 10, and lows well below zero. Snow ain’t going anywhere in the next few days.
  • Next Wednesday it warms up as a system moves through. Right now it looks rather dry; a couple inches of snow and temperatures up in to the 20s. That’s right, 20s!
  • Cold for Presidents Day weekend. Not brutal.
  • Then we’re in silly season, but here’s the gist of the week after: it might go above freezing. Maybe a little rain or sleet. You know, to speed up the course. Then maybe some snow, and seasonable and dry for the race.
The takeaway? No big meltdown. Moderating temperatures. So far.

Weather Speculation: 16 days out

What does 16 days mean? It means that for the first time, Birkie morning shows up on the GFS model. So we can wildly speculate! It’s so great, I can hardly contain my fever.

If the current model run verifies (it won’t) it will be cold for the next week and then turn milder. Hayward may peak just above freezing on Tuesday or Wednesday before Birkie, and then see a few inches of snow Thursday and Friday. The race itself? Cold—0 to 10 above—and nice soft snow.

I’d be okay with all that.

It will change. Drastically.

Post from the sky

I’m flying out to Minneapolis this weekend as a bit of a dry run for the Birkie. Well, that’s not entirely true. I’ve flown out for the Loppet. I’ve thought about flying out for this in the past—I skied it several times when I lived in the Cities—but couldn’t bring myself to fly out to Minneapolis for a weekend for one 33k skate race, as fun as it is.

Last year they added a ski orienteering race. I thought about it more.

This year, they extended the skate and the classic race to 42k. Oh, and they put them on separate days. Oh, and there’s still that ski-o. All of the sudden I was looking at a three hour drive to spend $100 for one (probable four-lap) 50k race at Craftsbury, or a three hour flight to spend $150 for three races, including two marathons and a ski-o. When I found a $175 plane ticket, the choice was easy.

I had my ticket. I had my entry. Then I realized I was insane.

I was flying out on a Friday night, getting in to Minneapolis at 8:30, and starting a 42k race at 9 a.m. Then a ski-o. Then I’d have 20 hours to recover before I went out and skied a 42k ski race. Then it’s on to a plane the next morning, back to Boston for a late work day. The snow looks perfect, so it’s going to be one heck of a ski weekend. Just shy of 100k of racing in 27 hours. If I survive.

Someone up the Birkie Trail on Google Maps

Several years back I made a valiant attempt to create a good elevation profile for the Birkie Trail. Since then there have been things like Strava, and what with everyone and their uncle skiing around with a GPS, we’ve gotten better data. But if you wanted to see the Birkie Trail on Google Maps, you had to monkey around with looking at various Strava segments or activities (or something of the like).

Well, now, if you go to Google Maps, the Birkie Trail is right there! Someone at Google (or whoever is responsible for their data) went and traced the Birkie Trail from start to finish. It’s not perfect. My 2008-era attempt—which cuts off after 38k for whatever reason—is better, as is most any GPS track of the trail (like this one). And, for instance The Google’s trail mucks up something around Mosquito Brook and then going across Rosie’s Field. But it’s not a bad start—are there any other XC ski trails on Google Maps (they have all sorts of gravity ski trails, but those are for suckers).

More snow!

A bit of a surprise storm sure tied things up in the Twin Cities (although not to an Atlanta level) but put down a good bit of snow in the Cities. Reports from Birkieland are of two to three inches of snow, but this will nicely freshen things up. Long range? There’s still no sign of a thaw, and there should be a pretty darned nice base in place for February.

If you’re skiing the Loppet, so am I. See you on Sunday afternoon after racing 90k in Minneapolis. If I survive.