Or one day if you’re skiing the Korteloppet.

Birkieland received several inches of snow on Wednesday and it’s getting groomed up today to set overnight. The Korteloppet should be excellent, with temperatures in the 20s under partly sunny skies. Just a beautiful day.

Then Friday night it clouds up and a warm front pushes in. It won’t get particularly warm overnight, but this will keep temperatures from falling back much, only in to the low to mid 20s. The course regrooming may not set up as much as people would like, and for classic skiers especially, the area which sees 3000 to 4000 skiers on Friday may have significantly warmer/different snow than the area to the north which is still on the fresh powder, as the pressure from skis may introduce some melting and moisture in to the snow. Of course, it looks like some light snow will fall overnight on Friday night in to Saturday morning, maybe mixed with a bit of freezing drizzle depending on how little saturation is present aloft to create snowflakes. (Let’s not get in to how this works right now.) Whatever comes down should be light, but enough to coat the trail, and it may fall through the start, so I wouldn’t expect rock-solid conditions. As seems to be usual, grab a softer pair of skis (except maybe if you’re in the Elite Women’s field?).

Race temperatures should be in the mid to upper 20s, rising to or just above freezing during the race. No need for lobster gloves this year! It will be cloudy all day, though, so no Lake Hayward sunburn, and yet more snow moves in later on Saturday night. All things considered, we’re dodging a blizzard bullet, given how much snow has fallen. Should be a great day for a race!

… until race day, of course.

Well, technically, it doesn’t close until midnight. So you have two hours to ski it before it turns in to a pumpkin.

Why is it closed? As we discussed in a recent podcast (listen to the podcast!), the Birkie needs to pack and plow the heck out of the trail when there’s this much snow, and having people on the trail slows down that process. (Yes, they’ll plow the 6″—we’re up to 6″ now—will be pushed off with whatever is left incorporated in to the cold base.) And once it’s been packed, if people ski it before it sets up, it could leave ruts which would have to be resmoothed out before the race. It’s not as big a deal as, say, a 40˚ day followed by a deep freeze where the ruts could freeze solid, but it’s still nice to let the groomers do their work.

Plus, do you want to be headed down a hill in to a corner only to see a PB400 staring you in the face? Probably not.

Here’s a made-up question and answer about the trail closure:

Q: If it’s going to snow 6″ on Wednesday anyway, why can’t I sneak a ski in before they groom that?

A: You probably could and would probably get away with it. But the Birkie crew will probably be out during the storm packing, especially on the Korteloppet course south of OO. There aer plenty of other trails to choose from, so maybe stick to those?

Q: The Birkie used to allow skiing on Thursday or even Friday, why does the trail close on Tuesday now?

A: Well, it closes on Wednesday for all intents and purposes. And there are races on Friday, so Wednesday is the new Thursday.

Q: Why can’t I ski on the north end of the trail during the Korteloppet? Surely they’ll give it another pass.

A: Surely they will. But they might be grooming the north end during the Korteloppet. Get the Korte in shape and then move north for some final prep. Depends on a lot of things. Also, with the Telemark trails and the North End trails and any trails that aren’t race trails, you can ski the north end, so maybe just do that instead? Or maybe, I don’t know, taper?

Q: Mukwanago is so far away!

A: Mukwanago is not far away at all! It’s 6 miles from Hayward. And word is they got out and packed it a bunch. And it’s a terrific trail.

Q: Where else can I find places to ski that aren’t the Birkie Trail.

A: Skinnyski.

Q: Are conditions good in other places?

A: Yes.

Q: I’m a #pro and I need to obsessively test wax on Friday for the race, where can I go?

A: Probably the warm-up track near the start would work? Or the west loops at OO, if they’re regroomed? Or go on the trail and be really annoying to other skiers testing wax, that’s a good idea.

Q: Can I ski the Korteloppet course after the Kortie and before they regroom it?

A: Officially: no. Unofficially: probably, but why? Just ski loops at OO or Mosquito Brook or at Fish Hatchery or Birkie Ridge. Again, you don’t want to meet a groomer coming down the trail as you’re going up. They’ll probably be grooming from both directions (I think a machine lives in Hayward during the race—the Birkie posted a photo getting gas at a gas station downtown—and can come up the lake and over the hill, the rest of the machines live at OO) so just let them be, mmkay?

Q: Is the Birkie Trail the shortest way to ride my snowmobile to Metro’s?

A: No. Or maybe, depending on where you are, but stick to the sled trails, please. Unless you’ve been deputized to pull a drag. (Also, apparently Metro’s has been closed for a decade.)

Q: Okay, so, I’m going to ski at North End. Some of the North End trails cross the Birkie Trail or even use it for a few meters to go from one side to the other. Will there be Birkie police out there if I cross the trail or ski down it for 30m to get to the rest of the North End trail? Can I do that? I want to be good but I want to get a ski in!

A: You know what? Use your best judgement. If the groomer went by three minutes before and you’d be putting ruts in the trail going across, maybe wait a few minutes, or ski gently in the tracks and cross double-poling at a right angle, or circle back. If it’s not final-passed or pretty solid, you’re probably in the clear. Just let it be our little secret. Abide by the spirit of the rule.

I think we can do this.

Headline says it all. The race is going to be great. Not too cold. Lots of snow. Plenty on the trail.

But the trail may be soft. Despite the Birkie’s best efforts to plow snow off the trail (yes, that’s what they’re doing with any snow that falls) they can’t get it all. So even if there’s cold snow underneath to mix with the new snow, it won’t be as solid a skate deck and classic track as what’s there now with a week of cold and no new snow. (Plus, the skate deck will break down faster; probably only the first few dozen skiers will really want their stiffest skis unless there’s a lot of water content in the snow and a refreeze, and that’s not about to happen.)

Now, this is a great problem to have. The headlines in 2017 from five days out mentioned words like “grim” and referenced the song lyrics “livin’ on a prayer.” This year you should only be praying you don’t only have a pair of super-hard track skis.

The details?

Seasonable weather Tuesday. Wednesday brings snow. The models are in pretty close agreement for Wednesday: 3 to 4 inches. Could it be 2 or 6? Sure. I’ll go with 3 to 5 to be safe. That gets plowed off and incorporated, and for the Korteloppet, Friday morning should be cold enough—down below 10—to firm up the trail pretty well.

Then things get interesting. The temperature for Korteloppet Friday (pretty much second biggest ski race in the country, mind you, although the Book Across the Bay may be larger) will be in the low- to mid-20s. Which is perfect for skiing. But after the race, two things happen. 1) it doesn’t get cold overnight. 2) it snows.

With just 1), we’d probably be in pretty good shape. The snow is cold enough down deep that the groomers could go out and pack the trail southern portion of the hard and let it freeze up. But with new snow falling on top, even an inch or two, and it being in the 20s, it might stay relatively soft. Firm and packed, sure, but not rock solid. Which, with thousands of skiers to come, might not be super-hard.

Of course, the first 20+ kilometers will be untouched. So they just need to get plowed off and retilled, and might stay quite firm. Except, of course, for the 1 to 2 inches of snow overnight, and temperatures in the 20s. If I had to venture a guess right now, I’d guess the race will be skied in snow or snow which has tapered to flurries, with clouds and light winds, and with temperatures in the mid- to upper-20s. Which is quite warm for the Birkie!

All this can change. The snow could stay south on Friday night. The main storm on Saturday evening—get ready for a fun post-race drive—could come earlier. The snow could taper to a period of freezing drizzle which could glaze the course right before the race (this actually could happen). The course could be skied with fresh grooming underneath and then a dusting of snow on top of it (the groomers can’t groom right up to the start, so if it’s still snowing, the corduroy gets buried). But right now all signs point to soft and warm. But not too warm. Maybe perfect. See you there!

The Birkie Trail will close on Tuesday to skiing. Exact timing is to be determined, but will likely depend on exactly what the snow and weather looks like at that point.

Once the trail closes, please heed the closing. Depending on conditions, a single skier can ruin the groomers’ work, and potentially create a dangerous situation for skiers on race day. The groomers have to tackle preparing more than 100 km of trail for 9,000 skiers, so they have enough work as it is.

Want to find out more? The podcast sat down with Kurt Proctor, the Birkie’s head groomer, to talk about what goes into that perfect trail on race day. You can find the podcast on iTunes, or download it here.

10 days to go!

Live from the Birkie Start webcam. This is what we like to see!

The snow continues to pile up in Hayward. Nearby reporting sites in Spooner and Clam Lake have seen accumulating snow 7 of the 12 days so far this month with 15 to 21 inches of reported not including more snow today; already more snow than fell in the entire month of January (and, it’s possible, more snow in the first two weeks of February than the rest of the winter up until the start of the month). The Birkie Trail has seen a similar surfeit of snow, and should clear two feet in February by the time the storm today comes to a close.

This has been a godsend. A week ago, we would have been happy with six inches, since the base, while present, was thin. Twelve would have been terrific. Two feet? That makes the race. And the timing is perfect. With cold weather predicted between now and the race, the snow won’t go anywhere, but it will have plenty of time to be packed, groomed, and set up.

The weather between now and race day looks to be cold, but dry. There may be some light snow to freshen up the snowcover, but none of the models is pointing towards the active storm track continuing. Anything is possible, from a blizzard to a rain event, but the most likely scenario for the next 11 days (and, yes, the Birkie is just 11 days away!) is for cold, dry weather to rule. With the snow on the ground and cold in place, I see no real chance the race is anything but a full-course race from the start in Cable to Main Street in Hayward. I’ll never say never, but the chance of a full Birkie today is 99+%.

See you in Cable.

I think last time I checked in I said there was a 97% chance of the Birkie happening.

It’s up to 99%. It probably won’t reach 100 for a while, but it’s really that good.

First, it has snowed. It’s snowed pretty much every day this month in Hayward, with about a foot of snow piling up. And more is on the way. Depending on how a storm swings, there could he half again that much on the ground by midweek. And this is on top of a hard base on cold ground.

That’s all well and good, but the snow needs to stick around. The verdict? It is very likely to do so. No model has shown temperatures pushing 30 by race day. It’s just cold, cold and cold, with the possibility of some snow. In the next 10 days (and indeed through race day) the American model tops the temperature out at 25; the European model doesn’t go above 23. It’s hard to melt snow when it’s nowhere near freezing.

The groomers should have plenty of time to pack down the snow and get it ready for race day, and hopefully they’ll get some refreshments between now and then. Could things change? Sure, they could. But for now, things look about as good as it gets.

I know it’s 16, because that’s the length of the GFS model. 384 hours. Rest up.

9 of new snow in Birkieland and the GFS has a high temperature in Hayward of 25˚. Even if it doesn’t snow another flake (and, uh, it’s forecast to snow several more flakes) the Birkie should be in terrific shape.

Lots can change, of course. But there’s no signal of doom, so for now, all systems are go. I’d say there’s a 97% chance of a Main Street finish.