Join Ben Popp for a preview of the 2019 race. Find the podcast in your feed, or download it here.

Four weeks to the Birkie!

I, for one, am going on a long ski this weekend. A long march, you could say. Yes, I’m in Italy, skiing the Marcialonga (expect a podcast shortly). But it’s just a long training race (for me): the main event is in four weeks in Wisconsin.

So what does the weather foretell? First, there’s snow, but not that much. Probably enough now, but not enough to survive much of a meltdown. The next week holds some promise, with the potential for a few inches of snow on Monday and no chance of a meltdown thereafter. If nothing else, it will put down some thick ice on Lake Hayward.

After that … the long range trends look good. The US models out for the next four weeks show Hayward in colder-than-normal temperatures throughout the forecast period. Obviously there’s not a lot of “skill” in this forecast, so things can change; and near the end there’s warm air lurking up north, but for the next couple of weeks things look okay. As for some moisture, it doesn’t look wet, but not bone-dry; a few inches of snow in the cold will help.

But, monthly forecasts can be wrong. At this juncture in 2017, things looked okay, but then went way, way downhill in the week after. So there’s a lot of time to come until we’re lining up next to an airport in Cable, Wisconsin. A lot can happen. But things aren’t dire, yet.

Caitlin Gregg, 5-time Birkie champion and mom-to-be (soon!) joins us to talk about last year’s race, and why she’s probably not going to win the Birkie this year.

Podcast here, or in your podcast feed!

It goes live in the feed in a few minutes, but you can download it right here.

And if you get through that one, the interview (only 10 minutes or so, not an hour) with last year’s Warriors and Inga is here.

It’s on, guys. It’s definitely on.

Change of a full Birkie: 100%. 1000%. No snow issues this year.

It snowed about half a foot last night in Hayward, so grab your soft skis and fluoros. It’s a winter wonderland out there on the Birkie Trail, with snow coating the trees from Cable to Hayward. A far cry from last year. The groomers haven’t slept, the parking lots are clear (but leave some extra time, especially if you’re coming up Highway 63) and the race is going to be great.

We (I) recorded a quick podcast this afternoon with some updates, it should be in the Podcast feed, or you can grab it here and put it in your Birkie playlist for the drive up.

Not many changes:

Thursday night: 20, 2-5″ of snow. The Korteloppet will be soft!

Friday for the Korte: snow tapering in the morning, potentially becoming freezing drizzle (fast, glazing, and just nasty waxing conditions for kick), highs around 30. Mostly cloudy, light winds.

Friday night: lows near 10, so the snow may have a chance to set up. The Birkie will still probably be pretty soft. Get those fluoros out.

Birkie: teens rising in to the 20s. Winds light becoming east/southeast (tailwind on the Lake!). Snow beginning some time in the afternoon becoming heavy in the evening.

Sunday: Great day for a post-race ski.

Yesterday, we posted that the Birkie may relive its 2009-2010-era glory, with a sunny, springlike (well, 35˚ often seems like spring in Northern Wisconsin) finish.

Today, the models have changed. But not really for the worse. Nearly every model, in addition to advertising 2-5 inches of snow on Friday morning (mostly ending for the Korteloppet, but certainly keeping the grooming crew busy), has been showing a storm on Saturday, too. The timing is mostly post-race, at least for faster skiers, although those in later waves may encourage some flakes during their ski. Winds may be out of the east, a potential tailwind across Lake Hayward (I’m not sure this has ever happened, but don’t worry, it will still feel like a headwind) and by some counts, half a foot of snow, or more, on Saturday afternoon and evening. It’s hard to say exactly where and how much snow will fall, but it’s looking to cloud up in the morning and start snowing by afternoon if it does.

This may make the drive home after the race difficult, although the storm is advertised to move out by Sunday morning, so, stay in Hayward! Cheer in the snow! Grab some food, grab some beer, stay off the roads (especially if you’ve grabbed some beer), head up to Seeley or, well, or go to sleep early after the race.

If the American model is right, there may be three feet of snow on the Birkie Trail in the next two weeks, so the Fat Bike race will be in plenty good shape and there may be skiing until April.