Headline says it all. The race is going to be great. Not too cold. Lots of snow. Plenty on the trail.

But the trail may be soft. Despite the Birkie’s best efforts to plow snow off the trail (yes, that’s what they’re doing with any snow that falls) they can’t get it all. So even if there’s cold snow underneath to mix with the new snow, it won’t be as solid a skate deck and classic track as what’s there now with a week of cold and no new snow. (Plus, the skate deck will break down faster; probably only the first few dozen skiers will really want their stiffest skis unless there’s a lot of water content in the snow and a refreeze, and that’s not about to happen.)

Now, this is a great problem to have. The headlines in 2017 from five days out mentioned words like “grim” and referenced the song lyrics “livin’ on a prayer.” This year you should only be praying you don’t only have a pair of super-hard track skis.

The details?

Seasonable weather Tuesday. Wednesday brings snow. The models are in pretty close agreement for Wednesday: 3 to 4 inches. Could it be 2 or 6? Sure. I’ll go with 3 to 5 to be safe. That gets plowed off and incorporated, and for the Korteloppet, Friday morning should be cold enough—down below 10—to firm up the trail pretty well.

Then things get interesting. The temperature for Korteloppet Friday (pretty much second biggest ski race in the country, mind you, although the Book Across the Bay may be larger) will be in the low- to mid-20s. Which is perfect for skiing. But after the race, two things happen. 1) it doesn’t get cold overnight. 2) it snows.

With just 1), we’d probably be in pretty good shape. The snow is cold enough down deep that the groomers could go out and pack the trail southern portion of the hard and let it freeze up. But with new snow falling on top, even an inch or two, and it being in the 20s, it might stay relatively soft. Firm and packed, sure, but not rock solid. Which, with thousands of skiers to come, might not be super-hard.

Of course, the first 20+ kilometers will be untouched. So they just need to get plowed off and retilled, and might stay quite firm. Except, of course, for the 1 to 2 inches of snow overnight, and temperatures in the 20s. If I had to venture a guess right now, I’d guess the race will be skied in snow or snow which has tapered to flurries, with clouds and light winds, and with temperatures in the mid- to upper-20s. Which is quite warm for the Birkie!

All this can change. The snow could stay south on Friday night. The main storm on Saturday evening—get ready for a fun post-race drive—could come earlier. The snow could taper to a period of freezing drizzle which could glaze the course right before the race (this actually could happen). The course could be skied with fresh grooming underneath and then a dusting of snow on top of it (the groomers can’t groom right up to the start, so if it’s still snowing, the corduroy gets buried). But right now all signs point to soft and warm. But not too warm. Maybe perfect. See you there!

The Birkie Trail will close on Tuesday to skiing. Exact timing is to be determined, but will likely depend on exactly what the snow and weather looks like at that point.

Once the trail closes, please heed the closing. Depending on conditions, a single skier can ruin the groomers’ work, and potentially create a dangerous situation for skiers on race day. The groomers have to tackle preparing more than 100 km of trail for 9,000 skiers, so they have enough work as it is.

Want to find out more? The podcast sat down with Kurt Proctor, the Birkie’s head groomer, to talk about what goes into that perfect trail on race day. You can find the podcast on iTunes, or download it here.

10 days to go!

Live from the Birkie Start webcam. This is what we like to see!

The snow continues to pile up in Hayward. Nearby reporting sites in Spooner and Clam Lake have seen accumulating snow 7 of the 12 days so far this month with 15 to 21 inches of reported not including more snow today; already more snow than fell in the entire month of January (and, it’s possible, more snow in the first two weeks of February than the rest of the winter up until the start of the month). The Birkie Trail has seen a similar surfeit of snow, and should clear two feet in February by the time the storm today comes to a close.

This has been a godsend. A week ago, we would have been happy with six inches, since the base, while present, was thin. Twelve would have been terrific. Two feet? That makes the race. And the timing is perfect. With cold weather predicted between now and the race, the snow won’t go anywhere, but it will have plenty of time to be packed, groomed, and set up.

The weather between now and race day looks to be cold, but dry. There may be some light snow to freshen up the snowcover, but none of the models is pointing towards the active storm track continuing. Anything is possible, from a blizzard to a rain event, but the most likely scenario for the next 11 days (and, yes, the Birkie is just 11 days away!) is for cold, dry weather to rule. With the snow on the ground and cold in place, I see no real chance the race is anything but a full-course race from the start in Cable to Main Street in Hayward. I’ll never say never, but the chance of a full Birkie today is 99+%.

See you in Cable.

I think last time I checked in I said there was a 97% chance of the Birkie happening.

It’s up to 99%. It probably won’t reach 100 for a while, but it’s really that good.

First, it has snowed. It’s snowed pretty much every day this month in Hayward, with about a foot of snow piling up. And more is on the way. Depending on how a storm swings, there could he half again that much on the ground by midweek. And this is on top of a hard base on cold ground.

That’s all well and good, but the snow needs to stick around. The verdict? It is very likely to do so. No model has shown temperatures pushing 30 by race day. It’s just cold, cold and cold, with the possibility of some snow. In the next 10 days (and indeed through race day) the American model tops the temperature out at 25; the European model doesn’t go above 23. It’s hard to melt snow when it’s nowhere near freezing.

The groomers should have plenty of time to pack down the snow and get it ready for race day, and hopefully they’ll get some refreshments between now and then. Could things change? Sure, they could. But for now, things look about as good as it gets.

I know it’s 16, because that’s the length of the GFS model. 384 hours. Rest up.

9 of new snow in Birkieland and the GFS has a high temperature in Hayward of 25˚. Even if it doesn’t snow another flake (and, uh, it’s forecast to snow several more flakes) the Birkie should be in terrific shape.

Lots can change, of course. But there’s no signal of doom, so for now, all systems are go. I’d say there’s a 97% chance of a Main Street finish.

Did you try to listen to ye olde Podcast and get errors? Me too.

Because I had a lowercase p instead of capital P in my feed.

It should work now. Maybe if you’ve subscribed and got errors you’ll get two episodes at once. As Mitch Hedberg says, “I like to hold the microphone cord like this, I pinch it together, then I let it go, then you hear a whole bunch of jokes at once.” (RIP Mitch.)

So, yeah, I am now producing the podcast on my own, and maybe you’ve noticed a slight decrease in production value, or maybe not. But the xml feed is the issue. It’s fixed. Hopefully it won’t happen again. (it probably will, though.)

In addition to our recent podcast, I’ve gone through the Guide and made updates to things which have changed from last year (or in some cases, due to editorial oversight, half a decade ago). Keep watching for updates, we’ll post important information (trail closures, etc) on the homepage.