Author Archives: birkiefanboy

Birkie Data: What do you want to see?

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So, I went to sleep after my bedtime last night. Once I’d assigned “place in wave” numbers to about half the field (a bit more arduous in Excel than it should be, but not arduous enough to merit figuring out how to write a script) without having fully sorted the data, I realized it was time for bed. In any case, numbers are coming and should be posted soon and, well, a lot of the charts will look pretty similar to last year. Why? Because when 8000+ people ski a race, there’s only so much variability in the data. In other words, the fourth wave in 2012 looks like the fourth wave in 2011. Which is a good thing.

In any case, I want to look at some new things this year. So I’ll ask: what statistics do you want to see? A couple ideas include:

  • Start position (measured by time to the timing wire) vs finish position: how well do they correlate by wave?
  • Can we measure the overall field fitness in a low-snow year?
  • Did the different weather dramatically change any finish times?
I’ve opened the comments on this post, please post anything you’d like to see there—and, if possible, how you’d measure it—and I will see if there’s any way of wrangling the data to prove your hypothesis.
Thanks!
(Comments have been turned off due to spam, for now.)

8070 lines

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That’s how many lines of data we have from all the finishers. And more than a week ahead of last year, too! We’re working hard, rest assured, to bring you all sorts of charts, graphs and other stats to the site. Soon!

Colin makes a video

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Colin Reuter, he of internet cycling fame, always wears a GoPro. Because he is awesome. He had a less-than-stellar race, and wrote about it (it’s SFW, but not safe for the dinner table) and there’s a video at the top which is basically a video of all the downhills to OO or so. Good fun to watch.

We’re waiting on data before we can start full-on stats runs. Once we get it, rest assured we’ll drunkenly stay up until 2 or 3 several nights to bring it to you.

Skin of my teeth

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As I came up Main Street, I was spent. I could only push a little harder than a couple of the other guys around, and I’d lost some ground to some others. When I came across the line, I didn’t look that good. There’s a video you can watch here. But I did just good enough. After I finish, watch the guy in red to the left. I’ll be in the elite wave next year. He finished 202nd.

God I have to start training. Now.

The back of the elite wave was stacked this year

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I’m parsing results. I’ll have a lot more information shortly, and I’ll have a race report coming, and stats and all. But here’s the deal. This year I felt pretty good, and finished 20.96% back from the finisher. Last year, I finished 22.67% back. This year, I squeaked in to the Elite Wave by less than two seconds, in 200th place exactly! Last year, I was in 192nd. And if I’d finished last year in the same percent back as this year, I would have been in 172nd.

The Elite Wave was competitive this year, especially the slower half of it. Last year, there were 57 Elite qualifiers from other waves. 54 from Wave 1 and three from Wave 2. This year, there were just 29: 27 from Wave 1, and one each from Waves 2 and 5. Yes, 5. And last year, there were 180 Elite Wave starters. This year, by my count, there were 211. I didn’t get passed by any Wave 1 skiers (which I did last year), I finished in front of more women, and I placed lower.

Here’s a chart! top 300 2012 Birkie finishers, percent backWhat does this show us? It shows, for the top 300 places, the percent back in 2011 and 2012. For the first 100 finishers or so, there wasn’t much different between the years. However, from 100 to 200, any given place in 2012 was significantly faster than in 2011. Take, for instance, 137th place. In 2012, this finisher was 16.6% back from the winner. In 2011, the finisher was 18.75% back. In 2011, 16.6% back would have been good 111th place—26 places better.

Let’s look at 200th place—the last Elite Wave qualifier (that’s me!). This year, I finished 20.96% back. Last year, in 192nd place, I was 22.67% back and the 200th finisher was 22.95% back. And if I’d finished 20.96% back in 2011, I would have been in 172nd place, 28 spots better.

So I got lucky but I guess I kind of had a decent race. And I better train better this summer. I’m tired of being right on the cusp.

 

 

 

 

 

Low snow? Not in March

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So, the last time the Birkie had snow issues (and not just potential snow issues like this year) was in 2007. The week after the Birkie, Minneapolis and Eau Clare each recorded 21 inches of snow with Duluth seeing 36 inches, with two feet of snowpack which lasted most of the month.

Well, it may happen again. A light-to-moderate snowstorm is hitting the Northwoods today, mostly from Duluth north. Midweek, a monster of a storm will hit Minnesota, with a good chance of 1 to 2 feet of snow from the Twin Cities to Hayward. Snows may then spread east, and the western mountains may get hit as well. Winter is coming, just a couple of months too late.

But the Birkie was perfect. Reports coming soon.

Fever

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I’ve got the fever. I flew out last night with a few other Birkie skiers and the fever was palpable on the plane. Waxing my skis the night before? Fever. Light snow in the Cities? Fever. Seeing the forecast for Hayward coming in a little cooler than predicted (and thus justifying my “hey let’s not bring a warmer wax” decision)? Fever.

Oh, and I’m only responsible for about half the #Birkiefever tweets on Twitter.

The only cure? More cowbell—and some skiing.

Oh, also, how lucky are we? If you look at the snow depth histories for Minnesota, there was more snow on the ground in 2007 (shortened), 2002 (ended shy of the lake) and 2000 (canceled). And yet, it sounds like conditions should be pretty close to perfect. I won’t call it a miracle Birkie. But it’s damn close.

Flex and grind. Old and cold.

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These are my answers to the frequen question of “what’s the wax?” The first is: “flex and grind.” This year, like most, you want a medium flexed ski with a fine grind. Why? Even when everyone thinks there are going to be hardpack conditions, like last year, the Birkie tills up the trail so it’s silky-smooth and very pliable, and not something where you’ll want stiff skis. And grind, well, much like last year it is going to be a tilled mix of old, transformed snow and new powder. It should be fast and pretty dry.

Which brings me to old and cold. The Birkie snow is usually old and often older and drier. While it may be a bit more moist this year, it will probably still fit the bill. The last three years have started at 15 or below (or, last year, 15 below) and it looks like this year will be no exception. The model output statistics, which better show temperatures near the surface, are hinting colder than the models, and a bit of clearing and calm winds could drop the mercury Friday night. By 8:20 on Saturday, the sun could be rising above single-digit temperatures.

(That said, I’ll go out on a limb and predict warmer weather than last year.)

Trail closings

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The Birkie has posted their trail closing report. The classic trail will close at noon on Friday. The skate trail will close at 5 p.m. They report a good 3-6 inch base throughout and have received a couple inches of snow in the past 24 hours (with a bit more falling right now). Temperatures should stay in the 20s and low 30s for highs until race day. Conditions look as good as last year if not better, amazing considering that last year was about as good as it gets. (Remember, there was a meltdown the week before Birkie last year and the trail was just north of the big storm that hit the Cities a week before the race.)

What does this mean? It means good things. It means that the trail is in solid shape and can be tilled up overnight in to silky-smooth goodness. It also means that the race organizers are expecting cool-but-not-cold conditions overnight (race time temperature probably of 10 to 15), so they want to put down classic tracks in the afternoon to set overnight. But, considering what the winter’s been like, it’s going to be a good Birkie.

Oh, and then there might be a foot of snow on Sunday. Good thing no one is trying to fly out that day.