Threading the needle

One of the great things about the Birkie is that you ski in whatever weather is thrown your way. 18″ of snow? Ski it. -11˚? Ski it. But it’s especially nice when it’s not brutally cold, or when you don’t have to push your car out of a snowbank the morning of the race. It won’t always be 2010-esque (10 at the start, 30 at the end, sunny on the lake) but we haven’t had a year with even moderate weather in quite some time.

And that might change, although it looks like we’ll be incredibly lucky. While last year the Upper Midwest was in the center of the cold air in the US and got shellacked with snow and cold, this year it’s more on the western edge. There’s less moisture but, at least in the past few weeks, no shortage of cold. Much of this month will dip below 0 in Hayward, and the next week or so looks especially cold. Hayward looks to go well below zero five of the next six months, and readings of -15 or -20 are not out of the question. The one exception? Birkie morning.

It might be downright balmy! A small disturbance will add a bit of fresh snow to the course (maybe even a post-grooming blanket to soften the well-packed base) and also keep temperatures from free-falling. Temperatures should drop to about 5 overnight, and rise to 15 during the race. Considering the rest of the week, this will be warm. Winds look to be light, and maybe even out of the north—a slight tail wind to propel us to Hayward.

In any case, a repeat of 2011 (frigid Birkie) or 2014 (the blizzard) are not likely in the cards. It should be a much easier race, logistically, and, compared to last year, physically as well.

Birkebeinerløypa

That’s Norwegian for “Birkie Trail.” And today, on a rest day from Ski Orienteering World Championships, we drove up the road past the Lillehammer Olympic Stadium and, that’s right, skied on the real, actual Birkie Trail. Let me tell you this: if you haven’t gone skiing in Norway put that on your list. Even in the fog today, the trails were freshly prepared, fast and beautiful. And apparently there are views when you can see more than 50 feet in any direction. Two more races, then back to Snowtown a.k.a. Boston, Mass.

Also, if anyone wants, Triacs here are $320 (well, the equivalent in Kroner). None long enough for me, but if you’re skiing less than 170 cm, let me know. Taxes included.

Weather speculation: Cold. Dry and cold until the Birkie. Nothing on the horizon anywhere near freezing, so it should be skiing on what’s there, which is plenty. In the past people have said “oh, cold and dry, it will be rock solid.” Those people forget that there is a veritable Armada of Pisten Bullys preparing the trail. Expect it to be firm but pliable. And expec tthe race to go off as planned.

Of course, we could have 18″ of snow the night before. But the way this season is going so far, I’d expect that in Boston.

Greetings from Norway …

… Home of the World’s Slowest Internet. That’s not entirely fair. It’s just that where we’re staying and at the race venue, the Internet runs at pre-dialup speeds. Loading the text from a weather model comes in line-by-line, if it comes in at all. We’re in a town, and nothing happens. Folks with international data plans don’t fare much better. But, it’s enough to obsess over weather, and post updates here.

What’s happening in the weather? Well, it’s warm-but-not-too-warm in Norway. 30s during the day, 20s at night. The ski orienteering trails are fast and icy, and I broke a ski today (an all-too-common occurrence in Ski-O). First race is tomorrow! And home in Boston, they’ve had 70 inches of snow in two weeks. That’s the most snow a major city in the US has ever received in that short a time. It’s more than all but 11 of the past 122 years’ total snowfalls. It sounds like great skiing, but a total cluster in the city.

Oh, but you want to know about weather at the Birkie? Well. Some snow in the next couple of days. Woohoo! Should freshen things up and get it in good shape for the race. The main concern now is a meltdown, and it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. As we get closer to race day, there really haven’t been any warm temperatures showing up in the forecast, so barring something unprecedented (say, 70-inches-of-snow-in-two-weeks-unprecedented) the course should be in good shape.

The issue could be the cold. Several recent model runs have shown some chilly weather down in to Birkieland around the start of the race, the most recent with temperatures around -20. Farenheit. This is not likely, but not out of the cards. It would be nice to have a good 2009-style race—10 at the start, 30 at the finish—again, but it seems like we can’t get lucky with good snow and decent conditions. Either too cold (2011) or too much snow (2014). But things can change, and the long-term trends are good. Hopefully we’ll hit the peak of a rise in temperatures and can eke out something without a minus sign in front of it (in ˚F, we certainly want a minus-something ˚C).

2015 changes, live

You probably got the email from Birkie about changes to expect this year in Birkieland. There are a couple of very notable changes:

  1. Parking. From the south, you’ll turn right off of Highway 63 in to the new Birkie Ridge parking lot. From the north, you’ll turn right in to the Como Lot. Assuming the Birkie Ridge lot doesn’t become a marsh or isn’t way too small, this is fantastic, as it will eliminate cross traffic and should double the throughput of vehicles in and out of the lots.
  2. The trail got a little longer. For a while, the Birkie was billed as a 51k race, then pulled back to 50k. Well, it’s back to 51. There’s a new loop down through the fish hatchery area, which moves the feed off of Highway 77 and adds a bit of new terrain. It will be fun to see how it skis. If you’re going to warm-up before race day, that’s probably not a bad place to go.
The Birkie also has a new map app up which you can find here. A few things to note:
  1. There is not 1350m of climb on the Birkie Trail. There’s a bit more half that. I went in to this to some degree with Strava and the Birkie, and we came to the conclusion that it’s about 800 or 900m of climb. Of course, in 2014, it seemed like more.
  2. A bunch of the climbs have been named. I’ve heard of Boedecker Hill and Bitch Hill, but not Big Bertha Descent. And there’s no climb in to Gravel Pit (it’s after a descent), but there are big ascents after Mosquito Brook and Highway 77. Also, there’s something about the power lines. This page still recommends the race guide to the climbs.
  3. If you’re skiing in Cable and there’s a climb called The Wall, it’s on the World Cup Trail at Telemark. And let me tell you from racing experience, it’s a doozy of a pitch unmatched in steepness by anything on the Birkie Trail. (The Telemark trails are shells of their former selves, but it sounds like they are at least getting some maintenance.)

Early weather speculation, and an update from the home front

Greetings!

It’s February, I’ve bought my plane ticket to the Birkie (you can even save a couple bucks using the Delta meeting code NMJDQ, see here), and there’s some snow on the Birkie Trail. Not feet, like last year, but enough. So things are looking okay for the race, which is barely more than two weeks away!

So, it’s time for some good weather speculation. Which might be paltry this year. In the past few years, we’ve had a lot of weather speculation. Is it going to snow? Is it going to be cold? Is it going to rain? And we’d do that this year, again (and by “we”, I mean “I”) except I’ll be abroad. No, I’m not taking a vacation to Cabo, or something silly like that. I’m off to Norway. Quick aside: plane tickets to Norway in the winter are pretty cheap, as are hotels. Why would you go in the summer anyway? I’m going for ski orienteering world championships (yup, a real thing) to ski for a week (oh, and I’m going to have a chance to ski around Oslo as well), and won’t have a ton of internet connectivity; I’m not sure how much. So I won’t be on top of all the model runs, and hope there’s lots of snow when I get back.

Right now? It looks pretty okay. The past few runs have shown cool and mostly dry weather heading towards Hayward, but hinted at a few inches of snow in the next week, and no warm ups in the near future. I’d take that.

Anyway, if anyone wants to take over Weather Speculation, let me know, and I’ll give you the Elite Wave credentials to get in to the site. (Okay, it’s a password.)

Of course, you know what else I’d take? 42″ of snow in a week. That’s what we just got in Boston. The old record was 31. Everything ground to a halt for a couple of days, but the skiing is great, and the scenery along the river spectacular. I may or may not have run across the frozen, windblown Charles the other day. If it crusts over, the river crust skiing would be epic. So I’ll try to send some karma the way of the Birkie. We don’t really need much more snow here, but we’ll take it.

Finally, a note on race reports. Several people have emailed me 2014 reports and I’ll try to post them, but I’m leaving for Norway on Friday and barely have time. Looking ahead, I’d love your reports for 2015. I am going to try to set up a blogging template on WordPress so that you can create your own race report (and I can do as little as possible …) but doubt that’s going to be in place. In lieu of that, a couple of guidelines to keep in mind (I’ll repost this after the race, but keep these in mind):

  • Please send me text with as little formatting as possible. I have to get it Internet-ready, so a PDF with in-line photos really doesn’t work. Sending the text in a plain word doc or the body of the email is best. I’m drawing the line this year. If I have to pull out carriage returns and such, I’m not posting it. Sorry.
  • I’ll post photos, but please send them as separate attachments.
  • Proofread! Please proofread. I have to proofread, and if there are fifteen spelling mistakes on the first page I might give up.
  • Consult a style guide. Use em dashes (—) and elipses (…) not double hyphens (–) and treble periods (…). And single spaces after punctuation. I’m amazed that is still a thing.
  • Keep it clean, and not ad hominem. If you want to call out a person who didn’t let you pass on a hill at 20k, don’t mention their number or name, unless it’s a buddy of yours.
There will probably be more. But keep ’em coming!
And see you soon in Hayward.

What’s new in 2015?

This Guide has been laying low for a while. We’re sorry! (Well, I’m sorry.) Too much time skiing, running stairs, and planning that trip to Wisconsin in February. (And Norway earlier in the month.) Oh, and working with the Birkie to chat with them about many of the upcoming changes. But there are some changes coming, and we’ll detail them on this post, elsewhere on this page, and in the future.

The big thing are start line enhancements and the Birkie Bridge, all part of the Birkie’s Five Year Plan (I knew it was a Commie plot!). The start line could always use some enhancements, especially now that Telemark is closed. While the airport has plenty of space, there is no permanent structure there, and staging 10,000 starters over two hours is daunting, especially on a cold or snowy day. It would be nice to have a building, but that level of infrastructure needs long-term planning as well—you need to finalize the trail before you put up a barn. The idea is to build a start area which will have infrastructure and a permanent routing to the rest of the trail, as opposed to the current start which crosses several easements and is only used on race day.

The pros of a new course? No driveways, all-year access, and a better experience. The cons: the course would no longer start with the same gravitas of facing down the Power Lines Hill, but take a more gradual route. But there will still be hills on the Birkie Course. We likely won’t see major changes this year.

But there will be a Birkie Bridge. 49.5km away, there will be no more soft snow festival crossing Main Street, but a bridge instead. The bridge will be, well, interesting. It will give a bit of a climb right before the finish, and then a steeper downhill to Main Street. It should be plenty wide enough (24 feet), although a climb is always going to require more room than would normally be required. It will be fun to watch skiers crest the bridge, take a dive down the hill and carry that momentum down Main Street. And it should make for some fast finishes. And in the long run, there is some chatter about underpassing other main roads in the future. (And by main roads, I mean “roads.” It’s not like there are that many of them.)

It’s also a good segue to talk about traffic. The bridge will mean that there will be no more Highway 63 detour, and all the traffic through Hayward will no longer back up all afternoon. This should be nice, although it will mean that the course to the lake will no longer be a pedestrian zone during the race, so take care if you’re crossing the road to the lake during the race. (I can only assume traffic will be gawking at the skiers above and be going quite slowly.) And the snow on the bridge should be much firmer than in past years (but hopefully they can get the snow to stick to the bridge deck on the inclines).

But parking. This is the big thing. In the past, this page has proposed a change to how parking works at Como Lot. Last year, the entire transportation system to a halt. The Telemark Field filled, and traffic from the north and south tried to access Como Field at the same time. The entirety of Highway 63 gridlocked for an hour in both directions, people missed starts, and it was obvious that the system needed to work better.

Well, it seems the Birkie has listened. According to rumors, the “Ofsevit Plan” will be implemented this year. Southbound traffic will detour off of Route 63 via Cable Sunset Road. Northbound traffic will have an unimpeded turn in to the parking lot. There will be two lanes of entry. If this goes according to plans (and I will contact the Birkie to make sure that it does, since it is basically the “Ofsevit Plan”) it should double the throughput in to the parking facility, rather than funneling all traffic on to one road, which should also help buses from the south navigate the area. With the larger race, and fewer facilities at Telemark, this dramatically increases the utility of the current lot and should allow traffic to move at a much better pace (i.e.: not complete gridlock). Still, it will be a learning curve, so leave extra time. Especially if there’s two feet of snow beforehand.

It’s time to train, plan, buy exorbitantly-priced plane tickets (no $175 round trip for me this year), and get to Cable! (On plane tickets, it seems that they are starting expensive this year, but prices likely won’t go much higher until a couple weeks from race time.)

OH NOES MY WAVE IS CLOSED !!!!!111!

So, you may have gotten an email that says that the Birkie is basically full. Waves are filling fast, and you might not get in to the wave you really, really want to be in. It would be the end of the world, right?

Well, not really. Because it really doesn’t matter that much what wave you ski out of (for the most part). Wave 2 vs Wave 3? Everyone is right at the top of the curve. There’s only a few minutes difference between the back of Wave 2 and the front of wave four, and wave times can be based on the past four years of Birkies this year, so someone who is seeded in the front of Wave 4 from a Birkie in 2011 may have gone out and logged 600 hours of training the past two years, and someone from the back of Wave 1 might be sneaking in there from their best time a few years back, only to have gotten fat and slow. (Don’t do this.)

There’s a lot of spread. If you are shunted from Wave 3 to Wave 5, it’s really not a big deal. There is going to be traffic on the hills. There are going to be jams at feed stations. The Birkie is working to address these situations, but there’s only so much trail real estate, and there are a lot of people out there on skis. And with poles. So don’t worry about it. Too much.

(Exception: The Elite Wave is based on the previous year, with some exceptions for really fast people. The front of the First Wave is akin to the back of the Elite Wave: not very crowded, no dead-stop back-ups on hills, uncongested feeds. But remember that you actually have to be pretty fast to ski off the front of the First Wave. If you were 225th last year and had a good training year, by all means you should try. If you were 600th and snuck in and most of your training has been PBR tallboy bicep curls, just take it easy.)

A much longer race

Everyone said that the Birkie was hard. It took a longer. A whole, lot longer. The chart below shows finishing times for the past five Birkies, for the skate race (other divisions coming; my computer went on the fritz and had to be repaired so I’m a bit behind). A couple of things to notice. First, the 2014 race was so, so much longer, on average, than the previous races. 2013—which was a slow year—shows longer times, but only slightly. 2014 is pretty much off the charts. Second, the finishing times are much more spread out. In the previous years, the peak 5 minute finishing time had at least 160 finishers. In 2014, it didn’t even make it to 120. So it’s a much flatter curve. Some more statistics below …

Want more? Here are some statistical statistics for the past five years.


2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
Total skiers 3773 3951 3743 3699 3641
Average time 4:48:47 4:02:51 3:46:40 3:46:19 3:30:36
Median 4:44:23 3:54:03 3:36:20 3:35:05 3:21:04
Stdev 1:10:24 0:59:08 0:59:20 1:01:33 0:52:52

That’s impressive. The average skier finished this year in a hair under five hours. Last year, a slow year, the average skier just barely topped four. And compared with the fastest year in 2010 (quite possibly the fastest on record; the winning time was), the average times are nearly 40% longer. In other words, if an average skier skied at the same pace in 2010 for the amount of time they skied this year, they could turn around in Hayward and make it back to the Gravel Pit at 31k. So if it felt like skiing a 70k race, it’s because it pretty much was.

More analysis coming soon; for now I’m off to ski.

The data are coming!

Well, the data are here. Sadly, my computer’s trackpad decided to go on the fritz, so it’s in the shop until tomorrow. Of course, I may be off chasing Aurora all night, so that could be moot. In any case, tomorrow is a new day, and perhaps one where we’ll get some charts up. We’ll be tracking how much longer the race took everyone this year, how many people missed their starts, and other sundry data. Stay tuned.

Hardest. Birkie. Ever.

That’s the word on the street from people with gold and purple bibs. I’ve done nine now—including one with a replacement pole after breaking a pole at the start—and this one was appreciably harder. I finished relatively well, all things considered (having a cold, not drinking enough on an hour-long bus ride where I had to use the john the whole time and then almost missing the start) and my time was 20 minutes off of last year (a slow year) and 40 minutes off my fastest time. So, wow.

I’ve been traveling on the icy roads since, and just gotten around to the Internet. Much more coming soon. Certainly race results. Certainly data (yes, we will be analyzing the number of people who missed starts, as well as how much slower skiers were this year versus last year). And as with last year, we have an open call for Birkie race stories that we’ll post here. Simply email them to me (ari.ofsevit at gmail) and I’ll post them with some celerity. If you are looking for guidelines, find them here and check out last year’s entries. The more the merrier.

Stay warm and ski fast.