We’re now 18 days from the Birkie.

(Okay, this is kind of scary. Have you started waxing your skis? You should.)

This is the point where we can start speculating about the weather. Sort of. Let’s start with where we are. We’re about where we were at this point last year: there’s good snow on the Birkie Trail, but it’s not particularly deep. The good news is that there are not long-range weather maps with sirens showing a huge warm-up. The not-so-good news is that we’re not out of the woods yet: there are some signs that it may be above normal the week leading in to the Birkie.

The next week looks cold (good) and dry. The week after looks like there may be a warm-up around the 15th, but the models are undecided on how warm it may get. The GFS has wavered between a couple of days above freezing and just temperatures moderating towards 30, while the Euro shows similar results. The Canadian gets warmer, with a couple of days around the 40 degree mark, but it’s a warm outlier right now. There’s nothing, however, which suggests a week in the 50s, a run at 60, and heavy rain (see 2017). We can’t rule it out, but it certainly looks better.

Keep an eye on this page as you select your skis. And hopefully we’ll be on race skis, not rock skis, in little more than two weeks!

The centerpiece of the Super Bowl experience in Minneapolis is the Birkie Bridge. But how did the bridge make it from Hayward to Minneapolis for a football game? We talked to City of Lakes Loppet director John Munger to find out. Find the podcast here, and get out and ski Nicollet if you’re in town!

It’s been a rollercoaster year so far in Birkie-land. Snow and cold, then some warmth, and the just missing out on a jackpot of a storm (12″ of dense snow down in the Cities, but only 3″ on the Birkie Trail, although at least it puts some fresh snow down on the Birkie Bridge at the Superbowl, and provide for a pretty good Loppet course, too).

We’re more than a month out from the race, and things look, well, okay. The big issue is that the last few days have shown a big warm-up on the model (the US model, anyway) for the week before the Birkie, after a cold snap to start off February. We saw this last year, although the model didn’t really catch on to reality until the end of the month, and we’re far enough out that there’s very little skill to the model (i.e. there’s a lot of variability in the actual result) and we’re looking at big picture trends. Plus, there’s a big difference between 34˚ and 54˚, but both are above normal.

Heck, a lot of this comes down to things like the MJO, which is a climatic phenomenon in the Indian Ocean which affects weather in North America (yes, really). But forecasting using the MJO, and even the ENSO (El Niño / La Niña) months out doesn’t give you exact conditions for the Birkie, but some long range trends. So we’ll keep an eye on conditions, but there’s really no telling right now how it will affect the race itself.

Who is Marty Hall? If you need a refresher, read what Nat Herz had to say about him. Described once as “opinionated and controversial.” And was around for the birth of the Birkie Trail. We’ll talk about that, and some other stuff, since Marty is one to talk.

Enjoy the podcast. More in the new year!

For the second podcast of the week, we talk to Tom Schuler, who is running the Double Birkie again this year on Friday at 8 a.m. at Fish Hatchery. Want to ski 80k or more? Just show up!

Here’s the podcast.

Stay tuned for another podcast later this week. And if you live somewhere with snow, enjoy the skiing.

Just in time for Christmas, our gift to you is the first Podcast of the 2017-2018 BirkieGuide Podcast season. We talk to executive director Ben Popp for some updates about the Birkie Bridge in Minneapolis for the Superbowl (which I call the Olympics, or something), trail conditions, and the race itself, which is still not full. So pretend like it’s 2009 and sign up now!

Here’s the podcast.

We have several more episodes coming which should post in the next couple of days.

Greetings, Birkie Guide followers. We’ve been quiet this summer, but with snow and cold in the air, it’s time to get the presses rolling once again. We have some podcasting to go in your earholes upcoming in the next few days (we hope!). But we noticed that Sun Country is having their annual(ish) Black Friday/Cyber Monday sale, Delta is matching, and there are some good deals on Birkie flights. There are some flights from Boston, for example, for as little as $217, if you fly home on Monday and are willing to go “basic economy.” But, hey, it’s cheap. More money to spend on fluoro top coats.

Stay tuned for more updates soon!

So it happened. For the third time since 1973, the Birkie has been canceled in full. (In 1982, it was a lap race for international skiers, but the main race was done away with.) Not enough snow—barely; Morse, 30 miles east of Cable, is sitting on 7 inches—to provide a safe course. The weather is rather unprecedented: a heat wave swept the nation (and California is on course to break all-time rainfall records). Is this an outlier, or the new normal? Probably somewhere in between. For now, we have to hope that 2018 is more in the normal (rather than 10 degrees above normal) and we have a nice carpet of snow for the Birkie.

If I were the Birkie (and I’m not) I’d highly consider moving the race a week earlier. With the growth of the race and the Kortelopet on a separate day, this would put the Birkie on a three-day weekend, so the races would be on Saturday and Sunday (in some order). There would be some cascading effects, namely the Finlandia and Book Across the Bay would probably want to move a week later. The Worldloppet schedule might be affected, too, with the Gatineau Loppet probably swapping a week later as well, but it would make sense for the Birkie to be on the three-day weekend (and data show that snow in the northeast is moving a bit later in the season, although Gatineau rarely suffers for snow).

It’s something to consider. The Birkie has always been the last weekend in February, but as the climate changes, it may have to change, too.

In any case, see you next winter—and winter, we hope!—in Wisconsin.