Our first guest race report is posted! Nick Dickey writes about losing weight, quitting smoking and skiing from the last wave of the Classic race. Thanks, Nick!

If you follow me on Twitter (and you should, really) you’ll see that I posted a bunch of pictures of a blizzard in Boston. Oh, and a Youtube video. We’re up to 21″ and it’s still snowing. I mentioned this a) because it’s awesome and b) because it looks like this wintry pattern could continue for some time.

Hayward won’t see two feet, but they will see a few inches in the next few days. The models aren’t particularly bullish on snow for Hayward, but the NWS is discussing the possibility of half a foot, starting as some mix but ending as colder, powderier snow. And then … it gets cold with the chance for storms. This is a very favorable weather pattern for the whole country, Northern Wisconsin definitely included. In the last dozen-or-so runs of the GFS, not-a-one has shown any kind of warm up or melt. Many have shown a foot of snow between now and race day. The only concern is that it might be quite cold for the race, but we’re okay with that. Unless there is a drastic change, snow should not be a problem.

Since this site began speculating about weather, this is the best year we’ve seen. Last year—during the winter that wasn’t (it was simply a silly fall that needed a shave and wore a fur coat, kudos if you got that oblique reference)—there wasn’t snow south of Hayward. The year before—despite the winter that most assuredly was—a meltdown the week before the race left the trail with grass poking through in a couple places. This year, despite inauspicious beginnings (that, amongst other things, canceled the Birkie Tour) the trail is well covered, it’s looking to stay cold, and more snow is in the offing.

With that said, we’ll post weather speculation every day or two until we’re within a week and can begin pinpointing the actual weather with a suite of models. Ski fast. Ski the road! (The governor of Massachusetts shut down the roadways, and the transit is closed. There’s not much choice.)

What are you doing on Sunday morning? Waking up in your bed after you drive back to the Cities? Waking up in a motel room after you sleep off the race? Waking up in someone else’s bed after you have a few too many Spotted Cows at the Sawmill (this should be your goal, right?).

What you should be doing is planning to come to the first-ever post-Birkie ski orienteering event at the North End Trailhead! What is ski orienteering? You put on skis, you get a map of trails, and you go looking for “controls” hanging in the woods based on the map. Basically, it’s an excuse to take a ski on the Birkie Trail and nearby. This is totally last minute and will be very informal, but you’ll get to ski around with folks getting ready to head off to the World Ski-O Championships in Kazakhstan (seriously) which is pretty awesome. One of whom just won the City of Lakes Loppet. No experience necessary. Just grab a map and go skiing.

(This is actually so low-key that we’re not going to have real controls or timing or anything since it’s too late to plan something “real.” But still, come. Details to follow.)

Right now, it’s cold. But the weather on race day, well, it might be cold, too (but probably not this cold). In any case, we’ve compiled data for every race day since 1973, and discussed what the weather might be. The race, in an average year, starts in the mid-teens. But it’s still probably a good idea to plan ahead and pack lobster mitts, a buff and some wind briefs.

Stay warm and ski fast.

I just bought a ticket to the Birkie. And with a month until the race, I’m pretty darned excited. The trail is—well—it has something frozen on it. My legs feel fast, and I’m flying to Minneapolis. One month to go! Get the fever.

A couple notes on this site. We had some questions regarding weather and have painstakingly researched the weather for every Birkie since time immemorial (1973). Results are being processed and will be posted soon. The long and short of it is that there has been, surprisingly, a slight cooling trend since the race started. Although the data are very subjective—the last Saturday in February is not a well-controlled data set.

Second, a note on the weather. This year seems to be shaping up, on the East Coast at least, like 2007. A very warm and snow-less start, followed by a prolonged cold snap. That was the last year the Birkie wasn’t complete. Hopefully this won’t be a repeat of 2007, and the models are showing cold and some snow for the trail in the next few weeks. Luckily the trail is so well maintained that a full race can be run with only a few inches. Although I think we’d all be happy with a few feet.

There’s another Birkie article out there, this time in Afar Magazine, but still by Bill Donahue (his brother, Tim, is an Elite Waver, Macalester grad and Manhattanite; Bill wrote last in the WaPo and previously about my coworkers in the huts, so basically he writes my life story). My main quip is that they have a list of “Birkie Enthusiasts” and I am not there. Has anyone read this site? (Probably not)

I’m not bitter.

It’s getting that time of year again. Snow is flying in the Cities (I’m not jealous at all) and a friend just wrote me Direct Message on Twitter (I know, so fancy):

Birkie: Where do you recommend staying? Hayward? Any particular place? Also, how do we get to Cable? Shuttle buses?

The answer was basically “check the site.” But I realized that we could provide more of a service by having some high-level suggestions of what to do if you’re coming from far away and have never been to the Midwest before. So there’s a whole new page, Traveling from Afar, in The Guide. It should answer some questions you had (where do I stay? where to I fly? when should I travel?) and probably some questions you didn’t have but should (mainly about beer, the race is in Wisconsin after all).

We’ve also gone through and updated the rest of The Guide with preliminary information for 2012. Now we just need snow (and lots of it!).

Last year, we posted about the Birkie closing to registrants on November 22. This year, the race has closed more than a month earlier, on October 15. The year before, it didn’t close until December, and the year before that, it didn’t fill until February.

It’s particularly impressive that the race is as popular this year given the dearth of snow last year in the Midwest, and pretty much the rest of the country, for that matter. The race went off without a hitch, but many other races were canceled, and very many skiers were relegated to patches of manmade snow for most of the season. Yet the Birkie, perhaps owing to pent up demand from a string of good seasons, keeps chugging along. The two main races will see 9500 starts this year (perhaps a few more as elites add in) in Cable. And if it’s a good snow year, we might be talking about the race closing before summer is over next year.

(Oh, but if you really, really need to get your application in, if it’s postmarked by today and you snail mail it you’re in. So, find a late-open post office, scribble in your details and send it away, all while supporting the US Postal Service!)