Remember the Birkie a year ago? It was pretty nice, with lots of snow.

Remember a month before the Birkie? It was a bit dicier. January had been a mess of freeze-thaw cycles and the trail finally built up some base later in the month, but things were dicier in mid-January. There had been three days in the 40s and the base only built up later in the month.

This year? It’s been darned-near perfect. The one day that topped 32 did so for eight hours; not enough to harm the base. About two feet of snow graces the trail, and it doesn’t appear to be going anywhere, at least in the next couple of weeks. (That’s a live link to the current GFS model for 16 days—half the time until the Birkie—and it shows a high of 25, a low of -25 and 6-12 inches of snow.) This isn’t any official weather speculation quite yet (I might tag it as such, though), but barring a catastrophe, we’re in pretty darned good shape.

The Birkie hasn’t posted this to their homepage, and buries it several levels down, but here is the latest information for trail closings before the race (current as of 9 a.m. Thursday):

• 10 a.m.: Classic Course Closed
• 4 p.m.: Skate Course Closed north of OO
• 6 p.m.: All Trails Closed

The main caveat here is that there will likely be 2–4 inches of new snow on the trail falling on Friday. So the Birkie will have to set new tracks during the storm for the classic, and will likely be out packing the new storm. So if you do ski before the official closures, watch for grooming machines on the trails. It is always possible that the Birkie will close the trails earlier, although with ample snow (it’s cold—temperatures bottomed out this morning at -15) and new snow falling, there is no particular reason to do so other than to clear skiers off the course to allow them to pack the snow more easily. Snow should start in the morning on Friday and fall lightly during the day (1/3 to 1/2 inches per hour) with temperatures in the low 20s before tapering around midnight. There may be very light snow (1/2 inch) during the race.

The entire course will get a full once-over (or perhaps more-than-once-over) before the race on Saturday morning.

I’m not going to give away my wax secrets (okay, fine: old snow = Toko, new snow = Swix), but there are two camps right now for how much snow will fall before the Birkie. In one camp is the NAM model. It shows 3-6 inches of snow falling on the Birkie Trail all day Friday and in towards the race. In the other camp is the Canadian model, which shows quite little. The HPC is in the former camp, with a 50% chance of at least 4-6 inches, a 10%-90% range of 2-12 inches. (I’d discount the higher amounts, but still.) The European model also shows colder temperatures—in the 8-12 range—as opposed to higher temperatures advertised by some other models.

How much it snows will have quite an impact for skiers in the race. For starters, flex. If the race were held today, it would be a pretty solid course, with medium-flex skis or harder for the course. Throw four or five or six inches of snow on to the course, an it’s a festival for the soft-skied types. Assuredly the Birkie will send out the machines to smooth and pack, but falling snow won’t turn to hardpack overnight.

My money is on three or four inches of snow. And my wax. Since I don’t have a dozen pairs of skis for any and all conditions.

There is a video going around of three Pisten Bullies all together grooming the Birkie Trail. This is basically porn for Nordic Skiers.

As far as the weather, we’ll need more of that. It is looking like the trail should get at good three or four inches of snow on Friday with some light snow lingering through the start of the race. In other words, soft track skis with a finer grind, and cold fluoros.

Fun!

As we close in on the race, and as our FEVER goes higher and higher, we’re getting a clearer idea of what is in store for race day. The general race weather is pretty set with a start temperature in the teens, clouds, light north winds and some new snow. The main question: how much new snow?

The models vary. It probably won’t be a full-on Birkie Blizzard that was advertised on some models a few days ago. The GFS is at the low end of the range, with only an inch or two of new snow falling on the trail. The Canadian Model shows a bit more than that. The European model is comparable with the Canadian. But the shorter-term NAM model is coming in to range and showing a bigger storm with half a foot of snow falling during the day on Friday. This would make for soft, new snow conditions, as opposed to a mix of new and old snow. No matter what, it will be groomed well and silky smooth.

There are certainly waxing considerations. If there is little new snow, it will be a mix of old—and very cold; the high in Hayward today is slated to top out just above 0 and the low tonight will be -15—snow and some newer snow on top. If there is more, it will be softer, and the snow will be newer, warmer and sharper.

Now, of course, if the only issues are what type of snow there will be and how much of it will be new, we can not complain. Last year had some snow issues before the race, and more of the “will there be enough” variety. Even the year before had a meltdown and some grass poking through on the power lines. No worries about that this year!

In 1991 and 2001, 8″ of snow fell the day or night before the Birkie (here’s the history). Since then, there has only been light snow before the race, although it has snowed with some frequency.

In 2013, we might get back to a Birkie Blizzard. A week out from the race, we have a whole suite of models showing a strong storm in the Midwest for the Birkie. Of course, things may change dramatically, but for now it looks like Birkieland would be near the northern edge of the snow. A southwards shift could leave the trail high and dry (although conditions are already primed for the race, so we don’t need the snow), and that is a possibility. However, a number of model runs have shown several inches of snow on Friday (which is less than a week away!) and overnight in to the morning on Saturday. Not that anyone really minds skiing in the snow.

Today we get in to having more than one model on the case. The GFS goes to 16 days, the GEM (the Canadian Model) goes to 10 days. The ECMWF does as well, but accessing those data is difficult. (Links to a lot of weather models and information are over at SkiTrailReport.) The long and short of it is that the race course should be fine. The only issue might be snow. All of the models are showing a strong storm coming up from Texas towards Chicago which, depending on the model, would hit some time between Thursday and Saturday of next week and would drop somewhere between a dusting and a blizzard on Birkieland.

So we’ll have to wait on that. Assuming that storm comes through, it looks to pull down some chilly air, with temperatures in the single digits for the race start. And it might be a little soft.

Does the temperature affect the speed of the race? Not that much. But we ran the data anyway. (Actually, that’s how we came to that conclusion.) And, as a corollary, wax probably makes enough of a difference that it kept me in the Elite Wave last year.

Obligatory weather speculation post: Still looking good. A couple inches of snow this week, then cold until the race. Start temps between 0 and 10, high in the 10s to 20s, maybe a little snow before race day.

This is the easiest weather speculation ever. (Knock on wood and don’t get too much pine tar on your knuckles.)