One of the great things about the Birkie is that you ski in whatever weather is thrown your way. 18″ of snow? Ski it. -11˚? Ski it. But it’s especially nice when it’s not brutally cold, or when you don’t have to push your car out of a snowbank the morning of the race. It won’t always be 2010-esque (10 at the start, 30 at the end, sunny on the lake) but we haven’t had a year with even moderate weather in quite some time.

And that might change, although it looks like we’ll be incredibly lucky. While last year the Upper Midwest was in the center of the cold air in the US and got shellacked with snow and cold, this year it’s more on the western edge. There’s less moisture but, at least in the past few weeks, no shortage of cold. Much of this month will dip below 0 in Hayward, and the next week or so looks especially cold. Hayward looks to go well below zero five of the next six months, and readings of -15 or -20 are not out of the question. The one exception? Birkie morning.

It might be downright balmy! A small disturbance will add a bit of fresh snow to the course (maybe even a post-grooming blanket to soften the well-packed base) and also keep temperatures from free-falling. Temperatures should drop to about 5 overnight, and rise to 15 during the race. Considering the rest of the week, this will be warm. Winds look to be light, and maybe even out of the north—a slight tail wind to propel us to Hayward.

In any case, a repeat of 2011 (frigid Birkie) or 2014 (the blizzard) are not likely in the cards. It should be a much easier race, logistically, and, compared to last year, physically as well.

Holy smokes.

The storm is coming, and the models are not backing down. Everything has lined up for a textbook blizzard, and it is zeroing in on Birkieland. The National Weather Service has probabilistic snowfall forecasts (here) and it’s a doozy of a storm, with an epicenter pinpointing Hayward, Wisconsin. At the 10th percentile, Hayward would see 9″ of snow. At the 50th, the accumulation would be 16″ and at the 90th percentile, there’s the chance for 21″ of snow. In other words, it’s just as likely that Hayward gets 10″ of snow as it gets 20″. There’s an outside chance that only six inches falls, but about the same chance of two feet.

Wow.

While this will most likely cause some race-day disruptions, we can thank our lucky stars that it’s falling tonight, not tomorrow night. Two feet of snow on race morning would probably cause the race to be canceled due to too much snow. Even still, it is going to be a Herculean effort on the part of the Birkie staff to get the course, and the infrastructure, in place for the race. There are 5 Pisten Bullys set to groom, but expect a soft course. There’s close to 100k of trail to groom, and the groomers can only make so many passes. There is also a ton of plowing for parking, plowing on roads to get to Hayward, and, just, where do you put all the snow? Expect things to move a bit more slowly than usual.

On the other hand, Main Street is going to have very good coverage.

The snow will start out heavy and wet, but as the storm goes by will get lighter and dryer. Still, it may be a more moisture-ful snow than we’re used to in the Midwest, although once it gets cold it may turn in to powder anyway. I’d expect most of the snow to fall with temperatures in the mid- to upper-20s. Once the storm departs, expect some lingering snow, some blowing and drifting snow, and plummeting temperatures—likely below zero on Saturday morning. Luckily, winds should be light. And we’ll thread the needle again: one day earlier and we’d be in a blizzard, one day later and it might be -10.

This will be a very interesting Birkie.

So, there was some question on the models this afternoon as to where the western edge of the snow would be. The NAM model was an outlier and even suggested that the snow would only reach to the Minnesota-Wisconsin border, with only a few inches in Birkieland. As much as I like big snowstorms, big snowstorms the day before the Birkie create big headaches, so I was kind of, sort of maybe a little bit rooting for this model.

Well, it fell in to line behind the rest of the guidance, so, bring on the snow! Here’s the TL;DR version of the next few days, weatherwise; I’ll go in to more detail below:

• Warm today! 40s in Hayward right now.
• Cool but not cold tonight. Only in to the upper 20s, probably cool enough to freeze the base, not that it really matters.
• Heavy snow begins tomorrow around noontime and continues through Friday morning. 8-12 inches. Don’t drive up tomorrow night. Just, don’t.
• Temperatures drop from 30 to 10 during the storm, don’t budge tomorrow. Strong winds.
• Race start temperature around -3, winds slacken somewhat.
• High on Saturday around 10, wind chills remain below 0. Dress warm. Light snow may continue to race time. Soft skis.

It might be really effin’ cold for the Birkie.

Just going to put that out there.

But first, Thursday. If you’re flying in on Thursday night, be forewarned that there may be some snow in MSP. Probably not enough to cancel flights, but maybe enough to allow you to move your flights around if things get tricky. Up in Hayward, you’ll probably see 2-4 inches of new snow, starting a little wetter and then, as the temperature drops, getting dry and powdery. This will be on top of a base which will see sun and temperatures in the 30s for the next two days, so the surface will transform in places (but perhaps not on north-facing uphills, which are most hills in the race). With new snow and lots of grooming, I would expect a course much like in 2011: mostly cold snow with a little ice mixed in to keep it fast, but not enough to require klister or anything.

On to the temperatures. They’ve been trending downwards. While at first it looked like the warmer air might hang on in to Birkie day, it now looks like it will depart on Thursday night. As high pressure settles in, winds will slacken. If they go calm on Friday night, with new snow, the temperature will drop, and we could make a run at the all-time record (-14) or the 2011 mark (-11). Luckily, we only get that cold if there’s no wind, so wind chills won’t be worse. And given the high sun angle, it should warm nicely, albeit only in to the teens, not the 30s. If it were early January, we wouldn’t be seeing zero.

Now things can change, and it could be warmer for the race. But the trends I’m seeing suggest colder. The NWS has been dropping their forecast temperature gradually, but they often build a regression to the mean in to long range forecasts. If the trends hold, make sure you don’t forget your wind briefs.

So after threat upon threat of a thaw seemed like a major possibility, recent guidance has pushed the freezing line southwards. It now appears that any warm temperatures in Birkieland will be minimally above freezing, quite possibly not enough to transform much snow. In addition, while the storm later in the week has been drifting off the models, a storm closer in—on Monday—should drop several inches of fresh snow on the course.

In other words: there will be a lot of snow on the course!

What we’re looking at are highs in the low 30s during the week—Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. There’s then a chance of snow on Friday, and with it cooler temperatures, with highs in the 20s. This should allow the course to set up nicely, but likely with some new snow groomed in, so it won’t be an icy, frozen base. An early call for Saturday would be temperatures around 10, perhaps a slightly breeze from the northwest, and some lingering snow.

But this can, and will change. So wax up those softer skis. Or leave them for the pros (shameless promotion of advertisers, look to the left). Also note that if you need last-minute lodging, check this out.

We are one week and one hour (and four minutes as I type) from the start of the Elite Mens freestyle race. One. Week. Away.

Here’s what’s going on with weather speculation.

The GFS has backed off of any real warm-up, and looks cold and dry for the race, with a few inches of snow midweek. It had been showing a “Panhandle Hook” type of storm before the Birkie, this is now delayed until Saturday evening and only a few inches of snow.

The ECMWF has the hook coming through on Thursday, and then colder weather for the race.

If I had to guess right now, I’d guess some fresh snow with some refreeze mixed in, temperatures at the start around 10. So it will probably be 30 and blizzarding; we’ll see.

(Anyone else catch MPR news drop the B-word yesterday?)

In a week, I’ll be in Hayward.

Let me take some ibuprofen; my fever has gotten high. And repeat:

IN A WEEK, I’LL BE IN HAYWARD. Say it with me. Again and again. There is no cure for the fever.

On to weather speculation. In the past day or so, the models have backed off of the very warm temperatures—to a degree. It looks like we won’t see temperatures breaching the 40 degree mark, and with cool nights the snow, if it transforms, will do so minimally. Then, there’s new snow. A few inches on Monday are likely. Then warmer Tuesday through Thursday.

After that is a wild card. The models have been flip-flopping, but a relatively constant theme is some snow. Some (the 00Z run of the Euro, for instance) have shown warm, wet snow the day before the race. Others (the 12Z GFS) show a cold front swinging through and more southeast weather system, which would bring several inches of cold powder during the race. But it could be a particularly white Birkie this year.

And it should be a nice ride for the next few weeks. Stay tuned!