We’re less than two weeks from the Birkie and the latest few model runs (off the GFS, so this means pretty much nothing, but we can still pick out trends) have all been pointing at a typical race. Which is great. It means a starting temperature around 10, a little snow between now and then, and upper teens to 20 by the time most of the field hits the lake. If all the weather speculation I do for the next week is talk about how no news is good news, I’ll take it. But I wouldn’t count on it. It would be too easy!

So, it’s still more than 384 hours to the race. But that won’t preclude some weather speculation. Why? Because I am damn excited about the weather. In Wisconsin it’s going to be cold and snowy, yada yada. But in Boston, where I live? We’re battening down the hatches. The over-under for snowfall is 21 inches (thanks, HPC). It’s going to be … street skiing weather! Haven’t had that in a while. And then snow! Snow to ski on. Snow. Snow!

But back to the Birkie. Things are looking very, very good. There’s damn good skiing already. There’s going to be a half foot of nice, base-building snow with some sleet and freezing rain mixed in—but not enough to melt anything, just something to add some substance. Then it gets cold. The arctic oscillation goes way negative, ushering in a prolonged period of cold air. The main issue is that it might be -20. That we can deal with. It beats the heck out of no snow.

It’s been a marginal snow year up in Birkieland. There’s been a freeze-thaw cycle which has taken what snow there has been and melted it down in to ice, canceling the Birkie Tour and leaving those of us with race plans fretting about bare ground. Trail reports have been spotty; it sounds like there’s skiing, but it’s not the great conditions we know and love.

But things are getting better. A few inches of snow fell in the last week. And yesterday, the Birkie Trail threaded the needle with no rain and a hefty dump of good, base-building snow (which may save the City of Lakes Loppet down south, too). Here’s a picture from Hayward. Temperatures today and tomorrow should stay in the low 30s (forecast model chart), so the snow will hold, and then the mercury nose-dives for the weekend.

The longer-term news is about the same. A little snow, a little cold, and some worries, but no huge warm-ups or storms. It would be nice to get a couple feet of base in the next week and add to it beyond. But that may not be in the cards this year. It might be more of a 2007-esque nip-and-tuck wait-and-see type of year. And, rest assured, we’ll bring you the best speculation we can muster.

These are my answers to the frequen question of “what’s the wax?” The first is: “flex and grind.” This year, like most, you want a medium flexed ski with a fine grind. Why? Even when everyone thinks there are going to be hardpack conditions, like last year, the Birkie tills up the trail so it’s silky-smooth and very pliable, and not something where you’ll want stiff skis. And grind, well, much like last year it is going to be a tilled mix of old, transformed snow and new powder. It should be fast and pretty dry.

Which brings me to old and cold. The Birkie snow is usually old and often older and drier. While it may be a bit more moist this year, it will probably still fit the bill. The last three years have started at 15 or below (or, last year, 15 below) and it looks like this year will be no exception. The model output statistics, which better show temperatures near the surface, are hinting colder than the models, and a bit of clearing and calm winds could drop the mercury Friday night. By 8:20 on Saturday, the sun could be rising above single-digit temperatures.

(That said, I’ll go out on a limb and predict warmer weather than last year.)

The Birkie has posted their trail closing report. The classic trail will close at noon on Friday. The skate trail will close at 5 p.m. They report a good 3-6 inch base throughout and have received a couple inches of snow in the past 24 hours (with a bit more falling right now). Temperatures should stay in the 20s and low 30s for highs until race day. Conditions look as good as last year if not better, amazing considering that last year was about as good as it gets. (Remember, there was a meltdown the week before Birkie last year and the trail was just north of the big storm that hit the Cities a week before the race.)

What does this mean? It means good things. It means that the trail is in solid shape and can be tilled up overnight in to silky-smooth goodness. It also means that the race organizers are expecting cool-but-not-cold conditions overnight (race time temperature probably of 10 to 15), so they want to put down classic tracks in the afternoon to set overnight. But, considering what the winter’s been like, it’s going to be a good Birkie.

Oh, and then there might be a foot of snow on Sunday. Good thing no one is trying to fly out that day.

Last night, I was all ready to post a Debbie Downer weather speculation report, with models showing lower snow totals and only a few days left before the race. But then I decided to exercise phase three of Birkie training (phase two was get food poisoning / norovirus two weeks before the race, not one; phase three is get a lot of sleep the week before race day) and go to sleep. And overnight, well, news has become better.

The last three NAM/GFS model runs are all printing out about four inches of new snow for Hayward. The ECMWF seems to be on board. And the Canadian model, while showing a bit less snow for the Tuesday storm, shows a pretty nice wave coming through on Thursday with a few inches. No warm up this week, and temperatures at race time around 10 degrees. (For what it’s worth, last year a week out we were expecting temperatures around 10—and then that dropped. In other words, don’t put away your wind briefs yet. I wouldn’t be surprised if the race started below 0.)

Oh, and recent trail reports make it sounds like even without new snow it won’t be an icy mess (well other than a few choice hills). But with a few inches of snow, it might take a lemon of a winter and make pretty good yellow gatorade.

It’s looking better. The GFS has bitten on a nice slug of snow—four to eight inches—and the rest of the models show less, but at least some, coming through. The rest of the models show similar amounts, and good golly three inches sounds like it would make a nice difference between a thin, icy Birkie and a “good” Birkie. (Six inches would be nicer, of course.)

As for race-time temperatures, it looks cool—below 20 but above 0—and the models are bouncing back and forth between clear conditions and light snow. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say that it is going to be warmer than last year. Of course, it was -11 last year, so that’s not a high bar.

With less than ten days to go, we know, well, not that much. Hopefully models will pan out and we’ll see a few inches of snow next week. And hopefully the later forecasts for race day will be for, well, not rain. But there’s not too much model consensus yet, and anything is possible. Best case scenario: 3-6″ of snow early next week followed by cold temperatures. Worst? No snow, and warm rain.

(In other words, the 18Z GFS has 6″ of new snow next Tuesday. Yes, that would be nice indeed.)

The bad news? We probably need some snow before Birkie day to have really good conditions. The good news? It’s looking more likely that we’ll get some. Not necessarily a dump (although one model run hinted at an all-out Birkie blizzard). More likely 2-4 inches next Tuesday. The last four (4) GFS model runs have shown a weakening low pressure system cut off over Wisconsin, which would lead to a few inches of snow. Nothing, of course is set in stone, and the other models don’t necessarily agree, but it’s within a week, and there’s good run-to-run continuity, so, well, it means very little.

As for temperatures, tomorrow appears to be the warmest day until the race, with highs going in to the high 30s. If we can survive tomorrow’s meltdown, the snow should do pretty well until then. And given that the Birkie is pretty important to the local economy, I’d imagine that the race organizers are going to be working to patch any thin spots in the mean time. Nevertheless, a few inches of snow next week would go a long way.

Race time weather outlooks are vacillating between cool and moist (light snow) and cold and dry. Except for the aforementioned Birkie blizzard run, which would have rain changing to heavy snow the night before the storm, a foot of snow and gusty winds. Highway 63 would be mighty interesting in that.